摘要
2010年海南岛被设立为国际旅游岛。本文使用1999年至2015年31个省份的面板数据,采用合成控制法,从理论和实证上考察了国际旅游岛政策的实施对海南房价的影响,并探讨了该政策对海南房价影响的持续性。研究发现,国际旅游岛政策的实施确实在短期内推动了海南商品房均价的大幅度上涨。但是长期来看,海南房地产调控政策的实施,使得国际旅游岛政策的房价推高作用受到抑制;采用住宅房均价作为稳健性检验,结果仍然成立;进一步使用安慰剂检验,发现国际旅游岛政策的房价推高作用是稳健的;为了确定这一结果的显著性,本文采用排序检验法计算了出现该结果的可能性,发现这一结果在5%的水平下是显著的。本文从房地产市场的角度对海南国际旅游岛政策效果的评估结果表明,海南未来旅游业的健康发展,需要谨防房价的快速上涨。
In 2010,Hainan Island was set as an International Tourism Island.This paper applied the panel data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2015,used the synthetic control method to investigate the impact of the implementation of the International Tourism Island policy on housing price in Hainan from the theoretical and demonstrational aspects,and explored into the sustainability of the impact of policy on Hainan's housing price.The results show:(1) the implementation of the international tourism island policy indeed raised the price of commercial housing in Hainan in the short run;however looking from the long run aspect,the price pushing effect of it has been restrained to a certain extent because of the implementation of real estate regulation and control policies at both province and national levels;(2) the result didn't change significantly when using the average price of residential housing as a robustness test;(3) it was found that the price pushing effect of the policy was robust when using the placebo test a step further.In order to determine the significance of this result,this paper calculated its possibility by applying the permutation test method and found that the result was significant at the level of 5% minus.With the result of the calculation of the effect of the policy from the real estate market perspective,the authors suggested careful cautions should be given to reckless rise of housing price to ensure a healthy development of tourism in Hainan in the future.
作者
杨克文
李光勤
崔书会
YANG Kewen;LI Guangqin;CUI Shuhui(School of Public Administration,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;Jiyang College,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Zhuji 311300,China;Institute of Finance and Economics Research,Shanghai Universityof Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期64-80,共17页
Tourism Science
基金
浙江省哲学社会科学研究基地(中国农民研究中心)课题“浙江欠发达山区农户生计策略研究”(15JDNF01YB)
关键词
海南
国际旅游岛
房价
合成控制法
Hainan
international tourism island
housing price
SCM
