摘要
本文采用目前可获得数据中较详实和准确的2005-2016年《全球企业绿地投资数据库》,运用事件评估的有效识别方法--双重差分法对"一带一路"倡议的投资促进效应进行全方位的评析。主要结论是:首先,"一带一路"倡议实施显著促进了中国企业对外绿地投资的增长,"一带一路"沿线国家的投资项目数增长幅度达32%左右,且一系列的有效性和稳健性检验均表明这一促进效应显著存在。其次,"一带一路"倡议对中国企业绿地投资的积极促进效应通过"五通"实现,即设施联通、政策沟通、资金融通、贸易畅通、民心相通。再次,通过异质性分析发现,在地理上,"一带一路"倡议更显著地促进"海上丝绸之路"沿线国家和与中国邻近"一带一路"国家的投资增长,且对高政治风险经济体的投资不存在显著的促进效应。从投资动态来看,现阶段"一带一路"倡议的投资促进效应主要表现为集约边际的扩张,即主要带动已有投资基础或投资项目经济体的投资增长。此外,基于三重差分估计的结果看,在行业上,该倡议的对外投资促进效应主要集中在能源、交通和通信等基础设施相关领域;在投资来源上,该倡议尚未对"一带一路"重点省份产生显著的投资促进效应。
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to create a new pattern of China's opening-up.Expanding mutual investment areas,accelerating investment facilitation,and encouraging domestic firms to invest in infrastructure and industrial sectors are the main components of the initiative.An in-depth analysis of the effect of the BRI on investment promotion helps understand the effectiveness and potential problems of the initiative and provides an important theoretical basis for the future development of the project. We explore the policy effect of the BRI on Chinese firms' greenfield OFDI and analyze the potential mechanism and heterogeneous responses to the initiative.This article uses an OFDI dataset from the Global Enterprise Greenfield Investment Database from 2005 to 2016,which offers the most detailed and accurate data available.We adopt a difference-in-differences method to examine the investment promotion effect of the BRI. We find that the implementation of the BRI has significantly promoted the growth of greenfield OFDI in Chinese firms,which is confirmed by a series of effectiveness and robustness checks.The number of investment projects in BRI economies has increased by around 32%.The positive effect of the BRI can be realized and explained through five aspects of the initiative: policy coordination,facilities connectivity,unimpeded trade,financial integration,and people-to-people bonds (also called the "five connectivities").The heterogeneous effect analysis suggests that geographically,investment in economies along the Maritime Silk Road and in areas adjacent to China is strongly promoted,while the policy effect is not significant for investment in economies with high political risks.In terms of investment dynamics,the effect of the BRI at this stage is mainly manifested by the expansion of the intensive margin,which means that investment growth is concentrated in economies with existing investment projects.We also explore the potential heterogeneous effect at the sectoral and provincial levels using triple difference models,which indicate that the effect is mainly concentrated in infrastructure-related sectors,such as the energy,transportation,and communications sectors.However,no immediate effect on OFDI can be found in BRI key provinces. This article contributes to the literature in three aspects.First,we identify the policy effect of the BRI on Chinese firms' greenfield OFDI.Our results provide ex-post evidence of the investment promotion effect of the BRI,whereas previous research mainly focuses on the feasibility analysis based on the investment environment of host countries.We also examine the potential heterogeneous effect,taking account of the geographical location of the host countries,the characteristics of the sectors,the sources and dynamics of investments,among others.Second,we provide empirical explanations of how the BRI promotes OFDI in Chinese firms.In this article,we examine not only whether the BRI has a significant investment effect but also conduct an in-depth analysis of the internal mechanisms of the initiative to promote OFDI.To our knowledge,this article is one of the first studies of the mechanisms of the "five connectivities" of the initiative.Third,this article uses a relatively comprehensive and real firm-level global greenfield investment database,which provides a complete record of all OFDI from China.This article can truly and effectively represent a comprehensive picture of greenfield OFDI in Chinese firms.Another available OFDI dataset in the literature is the Directory of Overseas Investment Enterprises published by the Ministry of Commerce.However,the Directory only reports firms that have obtained investment qualifications instead of those with real investments.It is difficult to determine whether a firm has actually invested after obtaining its qualification,which means that the data from the Directory may result in biased estimates when analyzing the actual OFDI situation of Chinese firms.In comparison,our data enable us to use information from firms' real overseas investment projects rather than just investment approval records.In addition,we check the robustness of our results using the firm-level data from the Directory and the country-level data from the "Foreign Direct Investment Statistics Bulletin" published by the Ministry of Commerce.The results of the robustness checks are consistent with our main results.
作者
吕越
陆毅
吴嵩博
王勇
LYU Yue;LU Yi;WU Songbo;WANG Yong(China Institute for WTO Studies,University of International Business and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics;Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy,Ministry of Ecology and Environment)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第9期187-202,共16页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71873031,71503048,71773103,71873120)
国家社科基金重大项目(17ZDA098)的资助
关键词
"一带一路"
对外直接投资
双重差分
绿地投资
"五通"
Belt and Road Initiative
OFDI
Difference-in-differences
Greenfield Investment
Five Connectivities
