摘要
以提升大型捣固机械(以下简称大机)维修的经济化、效率化应用为目标,基于大量轨道几何历史检测和维修数据,提出一种预测不同捣固模式轨道质量保质期的方法。分析捣固前、后的大机捣固质量指数MTQI在不同大机捣固模式下的函数关系,得到系列捣固效果函数。利用灰色GM(1,1)预测技术建立MTQI随通过时间及通过总重发展的非线性预测模型,将其与捣固效果函数结合,可应用于不同大机捣固模式下轨道质量保质期的预测和捣固模式的比选。既有线及重载线路的实例证明,本文提出的轨道质量保质期预测方法有助于轨道维修部门比选最佳捣固维修模式,可为我国有砟轨道捣固维修计划选择提供科学、经济的决策参考。
Aiming at improving the economical and efficient application of large tamping machinery,based on a large amount of historical inspection and maintenance data related to track geometry,this paper presented a method for predicting the track quality warranty period of tamping under different tamping modes.The functional relations of track quality MTQI ( Machine tamping Track Quality Index) before and after tamping under different tamping modes were analyzed,and a series of tamping effect functions were obtained.The nonlinear prediction model of MTQI index exponent with passing time and total weight was established by using the grey GM(1,1) prediction technology.Its combination with tamping effect function can be applied to predict the warranty period of tamping and compare the tamping modes under different tamping modes using large tamping machinery.The examples of the existing lines and heavy-haul lines show that the prediction method of track quality warranty period proposed in this paper is helpful for the track maintenance department to select the best tamping maintenance mode and can provide scientific and economic decision-making reference for the selection of tamping maintenance plan of ballasted track in China.
作者
曲建军
QU Jianjun(Infrastructure Inspection Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《铁道学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期117-122,共6页
Journal of the China Railway Society
基金
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划(P2018G002)
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研开发基金(2019JJXM08)
关键词
轨道几何检测数据
预防性维修
捣固模式
捣固效果函数
GM(1
1)预测理论
捣固保质期
track geometric inspection data
preventive maintenance
tamping model
tamping effect function
GM(1,1) prediction theory
tamping warranty period
