摘要
目的:通过对成都市2010—2018年基本医疗保险次均住院统筹基金支付费用整理分析,了解其变化趋势,并对2019—2023年成都市基本医疗保险次均住院统筹基金支付费用进行科学预测,为医保制度调整和政府决策提供数据支撑。方法:应用时间序列分析法对次均基金支付费用预测分析。结果:2019年第1季度次均基金支付费用与预测值差距最大不到8%,最小仅为2.5%。预测结果可靠。
Objective:To analyze the medical insurance average fund payment in 2010-2018 in Chengdu, to understand the change trend of the data, and to predict scientifi cally the average fund payment on basic medical insurance in 2019-2023, which provide data support for the healthcare system adjustment and leadership decisionmaking. Methods:The average fund payment was analyzed with time series. Results:Results the diff erence between predicted fi tting value and observed value in quarter 1, 2019 was 2.5% to 8% with the prediction value by point estimation. The value was within the confi dence interval, which indicated the results are reliable.
作者
陈志超
Chen Zhichao(Information Center of Chengdu Healthcare Security Bureau, Chendu, 610031)
出处
《中国医疗保险》
2019年第10期49-52,共4页
China Health Insurance
