摘要
大坝渗流性态是评估大坝是否安全稳定的关键.现有的混凝土重力坝渗流安全研究大多仅采用渗流安全监测指标进行渗流安全评价,忽略了环境因素和指标之间的相关性对渗流评价结果的影响,并且未能考虑渗流评价过程中由于等级分界与数据获取存在的不确定性.本研究建立了渗流安全评价驱动力-状态-相关性的DSR指标体系,提出了考虑不确定性影响的混凝土重力坝渗流安全评价模型,该模型的建立包括以下内容:(1)采用可拓云模型处理渗流安全评价等级分级边界的模糊性和参数计算过程中的随机性.该模型不仅可以得到满意的综合评估结果,而且能够给出评估结果的可信度信息,模型算法简单、适应性较强;(2)采用DSR指标模型建立了能够综合考虑渗流安全的环境影响因素及与混凝土重力坝工程需求相匹配的、多种性能指标并重的渗流安全评价指标体系;(3)采用影响矩阵与相关系数赋权法相结合的主客观综合赋权法,以减少在评价过程中指标重复计算带来的影响.利用该模型对某混凝土重力坝的渗流安全进行评价,并与其他方法进行对比分析证明了该方法的有效性与优越性.
The seepage safety of dam is the key to evaluate the safety and stability of dam.Most of the existed researches evaluate the seepage safety according to the seepage monitoring data,ignoring the effect of environment factor and the correlation between the indices.At the same time the uncertainty of classification and data acquisition in the process of seepage evaluation is not considered.In this study,the DSR index system was established for seepage safety evaluation,and a seepage safety evaluation model of concrete gravity dam considering uncertainty was put forward.This model includes the following parts.①The extension cloud model is used to deal with the fuzziness of the boundary of seepage safety evaluation grade and the randomness of parameters in the calculation process.This model can not only get satisfactory comprehensive evaluation results,but also give credibility information of evaluation results.The algorithm is simple,adaptable and easy to program.②The DSR index model is used to establish the seepage safety evaluation index system which is matched with the requirements of concrete gravity dam and with a variety of performance indicators.The environmental factors influencing the seepage safety are comprehensively considered.③The subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method combined with influence matrix and correlation coefficient weighting method is adopted to reduce the influence of repeated calculation of indices in the evaluation process.The model is applied to evaluate the seepage safety of a concrete gravity dam and the effectiveness and superiority of the method is proved compared with other methods.
作者
王晓玲
戴林瀚
吕鹏
王成
程正飞
Wang Xiaoling;Dai Linhan;Lü Peng;Wang Cheng;Cheng Zhengfei(State Key Laboratory of Civil Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)
出处
《天津大学学报（自然科学与工程技术版）》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期52-61,共10页
Journal of Tianjin University：Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51439005
51339003)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(51621092)~~
关键词
渗流安全评价
DSR
模型
相关性
可拓云
不确定性
seepage safety evaluation
DSR model
correlation
extension cloud model
uncertainty
