摘要
为研究太子河流域降水及旱涝演变特征,依据太子河流域19个雨量站1956-2006年逐日降雨资料,采用数理统计结合GIS空间分析技术,引入了降水距平百分率Pa、标准化降水指数SPI、长周期旱涝急转指数LDFAI等指标进行分析。结果表明,太子河流域降水量呈现非显著下降趋势,线性倾向率为-12.96 mm/(10 a),并且具有明显的空间差异性;太子河流域旱涝演变过程大致经历了4个阶段,20世纪90年代以来为干旱期,干旱发生的频率较高,多尺度SPI的综合应用能够较好地反映太子河流域旱涝演替过程;太子河流域旱涝急转现象频繁,典型年份旱涝急转强度具有明显的空间差异性。总体来说,涝转旱事件发生频率大于旱转涝事件发生频率,而旱涝急转事件主要发生在太子河流域下游区域,需重点关注旱转涝事件带来的影响。
In order to explore the characteristics of precipitation and drought-flood in the Taizi River Basin,the mathematical statistics method combined with GIS spatial analysis technology is used in this study.The precipitation anomaly percentage(Pa),standardized rainfall index(SPI),and long-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index(LDFAI)are selected to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and drought-flood based on the observed rainfall data of 19 rainfall stations from 1956-2006.The results show that the precipitation has a non-significant decreasing trend,and the linear tendency rate is-12.96 mm/10 a.The distribution of precipitation also has an obvious spatial difference.The evolution of drought-flood in the Taizi River Basin has experienced four periods.There is a relative drought period since the 1990s and the frequency of drought is higher than flood.The drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the Taizi River Basin occur frequently and there is a significant difference in intensity in spatial distribution in typical years.In drought-flood abrupt alternation events,the number of flood-drought phenomenon is slightly larger than drought-flood phenomenon.The drought-flood events mostly occur in the lower reaches of the Taizi River Basin,it is necessary to focus on the impact of the drought-flood events.
作者
秦国帅
刘建卫
许士国
富砚昭
QIN Guo-shuai;LIU Jian-wei;XU Shi-guo;FU Yan-zhao(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,Liaonin Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2019年第8期76-82,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0400903)
国家自然科学基金(51679026,51809032,51879031)
中央高校基本科研业务费资助(DUT17JC17)
