摘要
浙江省是中国丝绸出口大省,在国家和区域经济发展规划中具有重要意义。为探析浙江省丝绸出口特征及其趋势,文章基于2010—2017年浙江省丝绸出口的贸易数据,采用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型进行趋势预测,并与GM(1,1)、离散GM(1,1)和新陈代谢离散GM(1,1)模型验证比较。结果表明,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对时间有限且信息缺乏的丝绸出口数据具有较高的建模泛化能力,其平均相对误差仅为3.81%,预测精度为一级,较GM(1,1)(5.21%)、离散GM(1,1)(5.21%)及新陈代谢离散GM(1,1)(3.85%)模型均有了较大改善。此外,2018—2022年浙江省丝绸出口额将以年均8.79%的速度明显滑坡。为继续巩固和发展浙江丝绸出口大省的优势地位,提出了增加丝绸附加值、降低生产成本和建立预警机制等针对性较强的建议。
Zhejiang Province is a major silk export province in China and is of great significance in national and regional economic development planning.In order to analyze the characteristics and trends of silk export in Zhejiang Province,the metabolic GM(1,1)model was used for trend prediction based on the trade data of Zhejiang silk exports from 2010 to 2017 and the result was verified and compared with GM(1,1),discrete GM(1,1)and metabolic discrete GM(1,1)model.The results show that the metabolic GM(1,1)model has high modeling and generalization ability for silk export data with limited time and lack of information.The average relative error is 3.81%,and the prediction accuracy is Level 1,which is better than GM(1,1)(5.21%),discrete GM(1,1)(5.21%)and metabolic discrete GM(1,1)(3.85%)models.In addition,from 2018 to 2022,Zhejiang’s silk export amount will decline at an average annual rate of 8.79%.In order to continue to consolidate and develop the dominant position of silk exporting province,some suggestions were put forward,such as increasing the added value of silk,reducing production costs and establishing an early warning mechanism.
作者
周捷
李健
ZHOU Jie;LI Jian(Apparel and Art Fashion College,Xi’an Polytechnic University,Xi’an 710048,China)
出处
《丝绸》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期19-24,共6页
Journal of Silk
基金
陕西省科技厅国际科技合作计划项目(2018KW-056)
