摘要
经济新常态带来消费增速放缓,关于消费升级还是消费降级引起了各界的关注和争论。本文通过探究消费分层的理论和机制,在持久收入-生命周期(LC-PIH)模型和粘性消费增长理论的基础上结合2002-2017年的省际面板数据,从城乡、区域和收入水平三个维度分析中国居民消费变动趋势的动态特征及影响机制。研究结果表明,我国消费市场表现出消费分层的特征,且短期内居民消费变动呈现的主要是不同群体消费升级速度的差异,并不是明显的“升级”和“降级”的区别;同时房价、收入和消费习惯对于不同群体的消费行为存在异质性影响,房价波动作用于居民消费行为具有城乡差异、区域性差异和门槛效应;城乡居民都表现出较强的收入过度敏感性;城镇居民在做消费决策时呈现出更强的粘性效应。
With the arrival of the new economic normal,whether China is in the process of consumption upgrading or degrading has caused concern and controversy.Based on the LC-PIH model and viscous consumption growth theory,this paper explores the theory and mechanism of consumption stratification,and combines the provincial panel data of 2002-2017 to analyze the dynamic characteristics and influence mechanism of consumption trends of Chinese residents from three dimensions:urban and rural,regional and income levels.The results show that the consumer market in China shows the characteristics of consumption stratification,and in the short term,the change of consumption of residents is mainly the difference of the speed of consumption upgrading among different groups,not the obvious difference of“upgrading”and“degrading”;at the same time,housing prices,income and consumption habits have heterogeneous effects on different groups′consumption behavior,and the fluctuation of housing prices has urban-rural differences,regional differences and threshold effects on residents′consumption behavior;urban and rural residents show strong income sensitivity;urban residents show stronger stickiness in making consumption decisions.
作者
孙兴杰
鲁宸
张璇
SUN Xing-jie;LU Chen;ZHANG Xuan(School of Public Diplomacy,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第8期25-35,共11页
Commercial Research
基金
吉林大学哲学社会科学重大培育项目,项目编号:2018ZDPY01
吉林大学青年师生学科交叉培育项目“互联互通的世界秩序与新时代中国外交的选择”(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)
关键词
消费分层
房价波动
消费粘性
动态面板模型
consumption stratification
housing price fluctuations
consumption sticky
dynamic panel model
