摘要
介绍了服务于黄河水量调度的中长期径流预报技术方法、主要模型、预报系统及应用情况,并对未来黄河流域径流预报发展方向进行展望。黄河中长期径流预报模型从每个控制站点水文序列的影响因子和自身演变规律出发,根据各站点不同时期、不同影响因素,选择适当的统计方法分别建立。非汛期径流预报模型主要以前期径流、降水为预报因子,采用多元回归分析、门限回归分析和时间序列分析等方法建立;汛期径流受降雨影响强烈,流域降水主要受大气环流等因子影响,因此从前期环流因子中挑选预报因子,建立了汛期径流预报模型;天然径流量预报模型主要采用实测径流还原、时间序列分析及大气海洋物理因子相关等方法建立。黄河中长期径流预报模型及预报系统的建立,提高了黄河流域径流预报技术水平和能力,在1999—2018年20 a的水量调度中,提供了准确的年度水量预报和旬月径流预报,其中每年10月中下旬发布的花园口站年度天然径流总量预报平均误差为3.7%,最小预报误差为0.6%。
This paper focused on the medium and long?term runoff forecasting technology,main models,forecasting system and its application in the Yellow River basin,which served for water regulation and looked forward to the future development direction of runoff forecasting in the Yellow River basin.The medium and long?term runoff forecasting model of the Yellow River was based on the influencing factors of hydrologi?cal series and their own evolution law at each control station,according to the different periods and different influencing factors at each sta?tion,appropriate statistical methods were selected to establish the model respectively.The non?flood season runoff forecasting model was mainly based on the previous runoff and precipitation as forecasting factors and was established by multiple regression analysis,threshold re?gression analysis and time series analysis.The runoff in flood season was strongly influenced by precipitation,and the precipitation was main?ly affected by atmospheric circulation,so the forecasting factors were selected from the previous circulation factors and the runoff forecasting model in flood season was established.The natural runoff forecasting model was mainly established by the methods of observation runoff reduc?tion,time series analysis and correlation of atmospheric and oceanic physical factors.The establishment of medium and long?term runoff fore?casting model and forecasting system of the Yellow River had improved the technical level and ability of runoff forecasting in the Yellow River basin.In the 20?year integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin from 1999 to 2018,accurate annual water forecasting and ten?day and monthly runoff forecasting had been provided,in which the annual average forecast error of the total natural runoff at Hua?yuankou Station was 3.7%and the minimum forecast error was 0.6%.
作者
王春青
陈冬伶
WANG Chunqing;CHEN Dongling(Hydrological Bureau,YRCC,Zhengzhou 450004,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第9期20-25,共6页
Yellow River
关键词
径流预报
中长期
水量调度
多元回归
黄河
runoff forecasting
medium and long-term
water regulation
multiple regression
Yellow River
