摘要
渤海跨海通道建设提案是近年来的热点问题,多数学者认为它可以带来广泛的积极影响。但对于此类巨型工程,需要深入探讨其建设的可行性和不可行性。文章利用引力模型,实证考察了渤海跨海通道建设前后东北、华北和山东半岛三大地区经济联系强度的演化及其经济关系格局的时空差异;并利用ARIMA模型,对三大地区人口和GDP的增长做了长时序预测。结果表明,跨海通道建设仅对于端点城市(大连和烟台)、端点区域(大连和烟台临近城市)、端点地区(辽东半岛和山东半岛)带来显著提升,而对于其他地域的影响并不明显。近期建设渤海跨海通道,其影响效应相对有限,并不会造成大范围地区经济关系格局的根本性变化。
The proposal for the construction of the Bohai cross-sea channel has attracted much attention in recent years.Most scholars consider that it has a positive effect in many aspects, thus its construction is necessary and urgent.However, it is significant to thoroughly explore the feasibility and infeasibility of such huge projects. This article aims to investigate the evolution of economic relations among the three areas which are Northeast China, North China and Shandong Peninsula before and after its construction, and to examine the temporal-spatial diversity in the three areas.This article has constructed an empirical study by using gravity model and ARIMA model. The results indicate that the channel only brings significant improvement to the end-point cities(Dalian and Yantai), the end-point regions(cities adjacent to Dalian and Yantai) and the end-point areas(Liaodong Peninsula and Shandong Peninsula). The influences of the recent construction of the Bohai cross-sea channel is relatively limited and will not cause fundamental changes in the pattern of economic relations in a wide range of areas.
作者
陈延斌
殷冠文
孙峰华
CHEN Yanbin;YIN Guan wen;SUN Fenghua(College of Geography and Environment/Collaborative Innovation Center of Human-Nature and Green Development in Universities of Shandong,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250358,Shandong,China;Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea,Ludong University,Yantai 264025,Shandong,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第10期29-35,共7页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41171096、41601156)
山东省高等学校人文社会科学计划项目(J16YE36)
山东师范大学青年教师人文社会科学类科研项目(13SQR004)
关键词
渤海跨海通道
经济关系格局
时空差异
引力模型
ARIMA模型
Bohai cross-sea channel
pattern of economic relations
temporal-spatial diversity
gravity model
ARIMA model
