摘要
【目的】探析天然橡胶生产与价格的相互影响关系,厘清生产对价格变动的反应程度以及主产国生产对我国市场的冲击。【方法】运用面板数据模型、GARCH模型及脉冲向量函数,测算生产弹性,评估生产信息对市场的影响。【结果】不同地区的天然橡胶月度价格和产量变动趋势一致,各自具有协整关系;整体而言,天然橡胶价格提高1%,主产国年度产量约提高0.19%,生产的价格弹性呈下降趋势;不同国家的天然橡胶价格弹性存在明显差异,泰国产量的价格弹性在0.1200~0.1500;主产国对天然橡胶价格长短期信息都很关注,泰国和印度生产对价格变动的反应具有非对称性,印度对负向信息更敏感,泰国则是正向信息;国内天然橡胶价格对来自泰国产量变动信息最敏感,其次是马来西亚和国内生产。【建议】重视增加橡胶种植区域的就业机会,采用新技术提高产出,同时充分利用地区经济发展成果,实现更灵活就业,扩大家庭生计策略集,重新配置劳动力以减少福利损失;加强对天然橡胶主产国生产和政策的监测,及时整理发布或制定相关措施,以利于维持国内市场平稳,保障资源的有效获取。
【Objective】This paper discussed the interactions between prices and productions of natural rubber in order to identify the amplitude of production responding to changes in prices and the reactions of the domestic market to shocks from production in main producing countries.【Method】Panel data model,GARCH model and impulse response function were used to measure the production elasticities and evaluate the impact of changes in production on market.【Result】Results showed that there were similar trends among monthly prices and productions at different regions.In general,if the price increased 1%,the production in main producing countries might raise 0.19%while the price elasticity of production tended to be weaker.The price elasticities differed among countries and it ranged from 0.1200 to 0.1500 in Thailand.The growers in main producing countries paid attention to both of long-and short-term signals of prices,but the reaction of Thailand and India to price changes were asymmetric.Those in India were more sensitive to the negative information while those in Thailand were more sensitive to the positive information.The domestic traders were most careful about changes in Thailand’s production and the latter were Malaysia and home-country.【Suggestion】More attentions should be paid to increasing the job opportunities in rubber planting areas,improving productions by adopting new techniques,making full use of the local economic development fruits to realize more flexible employment,enlarging family livelihood strategy set,reallocating labors to reduce welfare loss.Strengthening the monitoring of production and strategies of main producing countries,organizing and releasing the related measures timely to maintain the stable domestic market and ensure the effective obtain of the resources.
作者
刘锐金
杨琳
何长辉
LIU Rui-jin;YANG Lin;HE Chang-hui(Rubber Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Science,Haikou 571101,China;Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)
出处
《南方农业学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第10期2359-2367,共9页
Journal of Southern Agriculture
基金
海南省哲学社会科学规划项目[HNSK（YB）17-85]
中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所基本科研业务费专项（1630022018014,1630022016021,1630022015020）
关键词
天然橡胶
价格
生产
主产国
非对称性
natural rubber
prices
production
main producing country
asymmetric
