摘要
基于跨国面板数据并采用系统广义矩估计方法,可实证检验资本账户开放的经济增长效应。研究结果表明,经济合作与发展组织成员国开放资本账户的增长效应显著大于非经济合作与发展组织成员国。在此基础上,引入5个初始条件建立门槛模型进一步检验资本账户开放的门槛特征。回归结果显示,资本账户开放对经济增长的影响具有门槛效应。只有当初始条件水平越过门槛值时,开放资本账户才可能会促进经济增长;当一国初始条件较差时应该谨慎推进资本账户开放,并把重心放在国内改革和建设上以提高初始条件水平。
Based on the panel data of 37 countries and using systematic GMM estimation method,this paper empirically tests the economic growth effect of capital account liberalization.The results show that the growth effect of liberalizing capital accounts in OECD member countries is significantly greater than that in non-OECD member countries.On this basis,five initial conditions are introduced to establish a threshold model to further test the threshold characteristics of capital account liberalization.Regression results show that the impact of capital account liberalization on growth has a threshold effect.Only when the initial conditions cross the threshold can the liberalization of the capital account promote economic growth;when the threshold level of a country’s initial conditions is low,it should carefully push forward the capital account liberalization and focus on domestic reform and construction to improve the initial conditions.
作者
胡亚楠
HU Yanan(Postdoctoral Programme of Bank of Communication,Shanghai 200336)
出处
《首都经济贸易大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期3-11,共9页
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
关键词
资本账户开放
经济增长
门槛效应
宏观经济稳定
贸易开放
金融发展
制度质量
capital account liberalization
economic growth
threshold effect
stability of macro-economy
trade openness
financial development
institutional quality
