摘要
自2008年金融危机后,中国机场货运迎来了蓬勃发展,各地政府出台的政策对于机场货运的发展具有重要的意义。首先确定影响货邮吞吐量的因素,其次根据机场的实际发展情况做出三种假设,并在此基础上引入虚拟变量,构建多元线性回归模型,最后对郑州新郑机场、西安咸阳机场、南宁吴圩机场、海口美兰机场和无锡硕放机场进行实例验证。结果表明:机场货邮吞吐量受该地区经济和政策两个因素同时影响,政策因素对于机场货运的影响具有时效性,并且不同的政策类型对于机场货运的影响效果不同,间接支持型政策对于机场货运影响的持续性较强,直接投资型政策见效速度快,政府在颁布政策时不仅要根据机场实际情况考虑经济因素和政策因素影响的大小,还要根据机场当前的需要选择适合的政策类型。
Since the financial crisis in 2008,China’s airport freight has ushered in a booming development.The policies issued by local governments are of great significance to the development of airport freight.Firstly,the factors affecting the throughput of goods and mail are determined.Secondly,based on the actual development of the airport,three assumptions are made.Based on this,dummy variables are introduced to construct a multivariate linear regression model.Finally,Zhengzhou Xinzheng Airport,Xi’an Xianyang Airport,and Nanning Wuxu Airport was carried out at the airport,Haikou Meilan Airport and Wuxi Shuofang Airport.The results show that the airport cargo and mail throughput is affected by both economic and policy factors in the region.The impact of policy factors on airport freight has timeliness,and different policy types have different effects on airport freight.Indirect support policies for airports The persistence of cargo impact is strong,and the direct investment policy is effective.When the government issues policies,it must consider the influence of economic factors and policy factors according to the actual situation of the airport.And choose the appropriate policy type based on the current needs of the airport..
作者
赵桂红
孟超
吕凤斌
ZHAO Guihong;MENG Chao;LV Fengbin(Economics and Management College,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)
出处
《综合运输》
2019年第11期95-99,共5页
China Transportation Review
基金
国家自然基金青年项目“基于最大似然原理的分层聚类算法研究”(61103005)
中国民航局科技创新项目“基于多航空旅游产品动态配置与整合的民航全球分销支撑平台技术开发与实现”(MHRD20130216)资助
关键词
政策因素
政策类型
货邮吞吐量
虚拟变量
多元回归模型
Policy factors
Policy type
Cargo throughput
Dummy variables
Multiple regression model
