摘要
影响气象预报准确率的因素主要包括:环境对气象预报准确率会产生影响、气象预报人才紧缺且专业能力偏低、气象观测信息的采集和监测工作不到位。过度的房屋开发和膨胀趋势使得气象观测站的周围环境遭到了严重破坏,被严重干扰的气象观测站只能搬迁到新的站址。许多气象预报人员都是身兼数职进行超负荷工作。气象预报人才培养具有一定的周期性,许多刚毕业的气象预报人员的专业化水平还有待提升。由于受到各种人为、自然与设备等因素的影响,导致规定时段内采集到的观测信息数据不准确、不详实。提出了提升气象预报准确性的对策,即优化气象观测环境,加强气象预报人才队伍建设,实现自动化观测。将观测站迁移至城市周边,建设必要的气象校准站点。制定科学合理的预报工作制度,定期对气象预报人员进行培训和考核,可以将技术骨干送到相应的院校进行培训。气象部门应尽量减少人为干预,科学发展自动化采集技术,实现线性数据采集,采用先进的气象观测设备对天气要素信息进行全天候自动化观测。
The factors that affect the accuracy of meteorological forecast mainly include the environment will affect the accuracy of meteorological forecast,the lack of talents and low professional ability of meteorological forecast,and the collection and monitoring of meteorological observation information are not in place.The excessive house development and expansion trend make the surrounding environment of meteorological observation station seriously damaged,and seriously disturbed meteorological observation station can only be moved to a new site.Many weather forecasters are part-time workers carrying out overload work.The cultivation of weather forecasters has certain periodicity,and professional level of many newly graduated weather forecasters still needs to be improved.Due to the influence of various human,natural and equipment factors,the observation information data collected in specified period is not accurate and detailed.The countermeasures to improve accuracy of meteorological forecast are put forward,that is,to optimize the meteorological observation environment,to strengthen the construction of meteorological forecast talents and to realize automatic observation.The observation stations shall be relocated to the surrounding areas of the city and necessary meteorological calibration stations shall be built.A scientific and reasonable forecast system shall be formulated,and meteorological forecast personnel shall be regularly trained and assessed,and technical backbones may be sent to corresponding colleges and universities for training.Meteorological departments should try their best to reduce human intervention,scientifically develop automatic collection technology,realize linear data collection,and adopt advanced meteorological observation equipment to conduct all-weather automatic observation of weather element information.
作者
贾志明
王怀远
JIA Zhi-ming;WANG Huai-yuan(No.93381 Troops of the Chinese people’s Liberation Army,Wuchang 150223,China)
出处
《黑龙江科学》
2019年第22期102-103,共2页
Heilongjiang Science
关键词
气象预报
准确率
因素
Weather forecast
Accuracy
Factors
