摘要
"丝绸之路经济带"倡议提出以后,中国同中亚国家在经贸领域的合作不断深化,进一步推进中国同中亚国家间的货币金融合作将是未来努力的重要方向。本文通过采用GTAP模型对中国与中亚五国开展货币金融合作的经济效益进行实证模拟,得到以下结论:通过区域货币金融合作能够有效促进我国大部分产业的进口;能够实现我国及中亚五国进出口总值的扩张、贸易条件的改善、GDP增长的提升和福利水平的提高,但会对世界其他国家产生一定的消极影响;人民币升值对区域内国家经济效益的提升更为显著。最后就中国同中亚区域货币金融合作向更深层次发展提出了相关政策建议。
The economic and trade cooperation between china and the Central Asian countries will continue deepening after the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative put forward. Further,monetary and financial cooperation with the Central Asian countries will be an important direction for future efforts. This paper makes an empirical simulation of the economic benefits of monetary and financial cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries by means of GTAP model,which is concluded that firstly,regional monetary and financial cooperation can promote the import of most industries in China effectively and promote the export of laborintensive industries in China. Second,it can realize the expansion of the total value of imports and exports,the improvement of the terms of trade,the increase of GDP growth,and the improvement of welfare levels in China and the five Central Asian countries,but the cooperation will have a certain negative impact on other countries in the world. Third,the appreciation of RMB has significantly improved the economic benefits of the countries in the region. Finally,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the further development of monetary and financial cooperation between China and Central Asia.
作者
张帅
ZHANG Shuai(School of Finance,Xinjiang University Of Finance and Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang 830012,China)
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
北大核心
2019年第12期84-88,共5页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
新疆社会科学基金项目（18BJY030）
自治区高校科研计划人文社科项目（XJEDU2018SY030）
关键词
中国
中亚五国
货币合作
经济效益
GTAP模型
金融合作
China
the Five Central Asian Countries
Monetary and financial cooperation
Economic benefits
GTAP model
