摘要
从全要素生产率的视角出发,沿用"索洛余量"规则选定投入变量,通过数据包络法(DEA)测算1998-2017年省级全要素生产率(TFP),进而采用完全修正的最小二乘法(FMOLS),分析了地方政府债务扩张对全要素生产率的影响。实证结果表明:虽然地方政府通过创新融资平台扩大举债会有缓解财政压力的短期效应,但长期债务扩张会对全要素生产率造成显著的负效应。那么,政府债务扩张的动力更多是来源于发展不平衡、不充分的中西部"弱者",还是发展较好的东部"强者"?基于区域异质性的考虑,将样本作区域化处理,构建包含滞后期的动态面板模型,采用系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM),实证研究了不同区域政府举债对整个政府债务扩张的"贡献"程度。实证结果表明:相较于东部与中部地区,中国的政府债务扩张对于西部地区的地方政府债务扩张更加敏感。
From the perspective of total factor productivity, this paper uses the ‘Solo margin’ rule to select the input variables, and the data envelopment method(DEA) is used to calculate the provincial total factor productivity(TFP) from 1998 to 2017. Furthermore, using the fully modified least squares estimation(FMOLS) method, this paper analyzes the impacts of local government debt expansion on total factor productivity. The empirical results show that although local governments can generate short-term effects of easing financial pressure by innovating various financing platforms, long-term local government debt expansion will have a significant negative effect on total factor productivity. Then, the driving force for the expansion of government debt is more from the ‘weak’ or the uneven development of the central and western regions, or the ‘stronger’ of the better developed eastern countries? The samples are regionalized based on regional heterogeneity considerations. This paper constructs a dynamic panel model with lag period, and further uses the system generalized moment estimation(SYS-GMM) to empirically analyze the degree of "contribution" of local government debt to government debt expansion in different regions. The empirical results show that the government debt expansion in China is more sensitive to the government in the western region than in the eastern and central regions.
作者
朱军
寇方超
ZHU Jun;KOU Fang-chao(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023;Center for Public Finance Research,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023,China)
出处
《河北大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
北大核心
2019年第6期80-92,共13页
Journal of Hebei University(Philosophy and Social Science)
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“地方举债融资的经济效应与风险预警机制研究”(15CJY077)
