摘要
基于系统动力学原理与方法,利用Vensim-PLE软件对湖南省的能源消耗碳排放进行了模型构建与仿真研究。通过设置5种情景方案,动态模拟了2017-2030年湖南省能源消耗碳排放发展演变趋势,以探究经济快速发展、能源结构改善、产业结构优化对未来湖南省能源碳排放的影响。研究结果表明:按照目前的发展趋势,湖南省能源消耗碳排放总量将继续保持逐年增长的演变趋势,到2030年,湖南省能源消耗碳排放量将达到14174.4×10^4t,约为2017年的1.47倍。经济的快速发展对湖南省能源消耗碳排放的增加有着重要的影响,降低煤炭能源消耗和调整第二产业向第三产业转变,能够有效减少湖南省能源消耗碳排放量。在初始自然增长、经济快速发展、能源结构调整、产业结构调整、综合调控调整5种情景方案下,到2030年时,碳排放量较2017年分别上升47.3%,57.7%,40.4%,27.7%,21.9%。从5种情景方案模拟的能源消耗碳排放峰值来看,产业结构调整方案于2029年达到峰值,综合调控调整方案于2027年达到峰值。
Based on the principle and method of system dynamics,Vensim-PLE software is used to establish and simulate the model of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hunan Province.With five scenarios set up,a dynamic simulation has been made of the evolution trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hunan Province from 2017 to 2030,so as to explore the impact of the rapid economic development,improvement of energy structure and optimization of industrial structure on energy and carbon emissions in Hunan Province in the future.The results show that,according to the current development trend,the total amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hunan Province will continue to grow year by year.By the year 2030,the total amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hunan Province will reach to 14174.4×10^4 t,which is about 1.47 times of that amount in 2017.The rapid economic development has a significant impact on the increase of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hunan Province,with the reduction of coal energy consumption and adjustment of the transition from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry to effectively reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions in Hunan Province.Under the five scenarios of initial natural growth,rapid economic development,energy structure adjustment,industrial structure adjustment,comprehensive regulation and adjustment,carbon emissions will increase by 47.3%,57.7%,40.4%,27.7%and 21.9%respectively by 2030,compared with statistics in 2017.According to the statistics of energy consumption and carbon emissions simulated by the five scenarios,the industrial structure adjustment scheme will reach its peak in 2029 and the comprehensive regulation and adjustment scheme will reach its peak in 2027.
作者
彭竞霄
袁超
高明惠
赵先超
PENG Jingxiao;YUAN Chao;GAO Minghui;ZHAO Xianchao(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China)
出处
《湖南工业大学学报》
2019年第6期51-59,共9页
Journal of Hunan University of Technology
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划基金资助项目(17YJCZH258)
国家统计局科学研究基金资助重点项目(2019LZ27)
湖南省社会科学基金资助项目(17JD25)
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会课题基金资助项目(XSP19YBZ142)
湖南省研究生科研创新基金资助项目(CX2018B738)
关键词
系统动力学
能源消耗
碳排放
湖南省
system dynamics
energy consumption
carbon emission
Hunan Province
