摘要
基于快速化货物运输中的安全风险因素,构建了基于马尔科夫链的高铁货运安全可靠度计量分析模型,定量分析基于服务供应链视角的高铁货运各环节的安全可靠度;同时,构建基于贝叶斯网络的高铁货运安全风险评价模型,借助GeNIe软件和数学推理得出根节点的概率重要度,甄别影响高铁货运安全的关键指标与关键环节。最后,通过数值仿真验证了模型的有效性,研究结果表明:高铁货物运输安全可靠度与修复率的相关性较大,加强动车组风险识别和处理能力,可有效提升高铁货物运输安全可靠度;规范高铁货运作业、加强安全防范措施和应急水平是保障高铁货运安全的重要措施。
Based on the safety risk factors in rapid freight transportation,this paper constructed a safety reliability measurement model of high-speed rail freight based on Markov chain,and analyzed the safety reliability of all links of high-speed rail freight quantitatively based on service supply chain perspective.Meanwhile,this study constructed a high-speed rail freight safety risk assessment model based on Bayesian network and determined the probability importance of the root node by means of GeNIe software and mathematical reasoning,to father identify the key indicators and key links that affect the safety of high-speed rail freight.Finally,numerical simulation was conducted to verify the validity of the model,the research results show that:the safety reliability of high-speed rail freight transportation is highly correlated with the repair rate,strengthening the risk identification and processing capability of EMU can effectively improve the safety and reliability of high-speed rail freight transportation;standardizing high-speed rail freight operations,strengthening safety precautions and emergency level are important measures to ensure the safety of high-speed rail freight.
作者
张得志
郭瑶微
陈妍
燕春光
祝伟丽
ZHANG Dezhi;GUO Yaowei;CHEN Yan;YAN Chunguang;ZHU Weili(School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;CRRC Tangshan Co.,Ltd,Tangshan 064000,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期2676-2683,共8页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFB1201304)
关键词
高铁货运
运输安全
运输建模
马尔科夫链
贝叶斯网络
high-speed rail freight
transport security
transport modelling
Markov Chain
Bayesian network
