摘要
樱桃绕实蝇(Rhagoletis cerasi(L.))被我国列为进境植物检疫性有害生物,是甜樱桃的重要害虫。本研究在收集了樱桃绕实蝇、樱桃的产量、面积、价格等相关数据的基础上,利用随机模型@RISK分别预测了其在防治与不防治场景下对我国甜樱桃产业的潜在经济损失。在不防治场景下,樱桃绕实蝇对我国甜樱桃的潜在经济损失总量在1.73~8.82亿元,投入防治后可挽回0.70~3.42亿元潜在经济损失。因此,为保护我国樱桃种植业的安全生产,应加强对该虫的检疫力度,防止其传入我国;一旦其传入我国,应加强田间防治来降低其对我国甜樱桃产业造成的潜在经济损失。
The European cherry fruit fly,Rhagoletis cerasi(L.)(Diptera:Tephritidae)has been listed as the quarantine pest,it is a main pest to sweet cherry.This study collected related data of R.cerasi,yield,area,and prices of sweet cherry,using random model@RISK to predict the potential economic loss of sweet cherry in China caused by R.cerasi under control and non control scenarios.Under non control scenario,the potential economic loss of sweet cherry in China will be about 173-882 million RMB(90%confidence interval),70-342 million RMB(90%confidence interval)will be retrieved after control.Quarantine measures of R.cerasi and field control should be strengthened in order to prevent its introduction and protect the sweet cherry industry and reduce the economic loss in China.
作者
秦誉嘉
卢国彩
刘玮琦
蓝帅
孙宏禹
李志红
Qin Yujia;Lu Guocai;Liu Weiqi;Lan Shuai;Sun Hongyu;Li Zhihong(Department of Entomology,College of Plant Protection,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;Manzhouli Customs District)
出处
《植物检疫》
北大核心
2019年第6期59-62,共4页
Plant Quarantine
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0108700)
