摘要
针对船桥碰撞风险评估中桥梁船撞概率计算问题,基于自动识别系统(AIS)数据获得桥梁船撞影响参数,以解决现有方法中没有考虑特定桥梁航区实际通航船信息的问题.基于AIS数据分析了航行船舶动态,获得了船舶位置、航速和偏航角等参数,分析了船舶交通流,并以实际的船舶交通流对AASHTO规范模型中的几何概率进行修正;基于内河流域水流变化规律对AASHTO规范模型中的偏航概率进行修正,对比分析了修正前后的结果差异.结果表明:AASHTO规范模型没有考虑通航船舶的实际航道和速度变化情况,会导致所计算的桥梁船撞概率结果误差较大;对于船舶航行情况复杂的桥区,有必要采用基于AIS数据获得的实际通航船舶信息来估计船舶在桥区的分布情况,以提高计算结果的准确性;对于水流流速变化达到3 m/s,流向角变化达到3°的流域,应考虑水流变化对碰撞概率的影响.
Aiming at calculating the probability of collision in risk assessment of bridge-ship collision,the influential parameters of vessel-bridge collision were obtained from AIS(automatic identification system) data to solve the problem that existing methods can not consider the actual navigation ship information in a specific bridge navigation area.Based on AIS data,the dynamic information of ships were analyzed,such as distributions of ships position,speed,yaw angle,and ship traffic flow,to modify the calculation method of geometric probability in AASHTO(American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials) specification model.The yaw probability in AASHTO specification model was revised based on the law of flow variation in the inland river basin.Results with and without considering the actual information of passing ships were compared.It is found that the probabilities of ship-bridge collision assessed by AASHTO specification model with and without considering the actual situation of passing ships are very different.Hence,for area with complicate navigation situation,it is necessary to use the actual distribution of passing ships obtained from AIS data in the risk assessment of bridge impacted by vessel for improving the accuracy of calculation.In addition,the impact of water flow variation on collision probability should be taken into account in the area with 3 m/s flow velocity and 3° flow direction variation.
作者
潘晋
汪咏
黄义飞
许明财
PAN Jin;WANG Yong;HUANG Yifei;XU Mingcai(Key Laboratory of High Performance Ship Technology of Ministry of Education,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;School of Transportation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Wuhan Lituo Bridge Protection Technology Co.Ltd.,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《华中科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第11期109-114,共6页
Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51609192)
国家自然科学基金面上基金资助项目(51679100)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2019III039,2018KFYYXJJ014)
湖南省交通科技资助项目(201616)
湖南省重点研发计划资助项目(2016GK2025)
武汉理工大学研究生优秀学位论文培育项目(2018-YS-024)
