摘要
霜冻对农业安全影响巨大。为了提供防范霜冻危害的科学依据,利用甘肃省1961-2017年57个气象站温度资料和霜冻灾害资料,采用趋势系数、累计距平、Mann-Kendall(M-K)方法分析了不同等级霜冻日数的变化特征及其对农业的影响。结果表明:(1)甘肃省不同等级霜冻日数呈明显下降趋势,轻、中、重霜冻及早、晚霜冻日数分别以-2.3d·(10a)-1、-1.8d·(10a)-1、-1.2d·(10a)-1、-1.2d·(10a)-1、-1.1d·(10a)-1的速率减少;2010-2017年减少最明显。(2)甘肃省各区域不同等级霜冻日数均呈现下降趋势,其中河西中部和甘南北部为快速减少区,陇南地区及陇东地区减少幅度较小。(3)近57a甘肃省呈晚霜冻结束时间提前,早霜冻出现时间推迟的趋势,且存在霜期最长的甘南地区晚霜冻结束时间提前最多,霜期最短的陇南地区早霜冻出现时间推迟最多的特点。(4)90年代末以后因≥10℃积温的快速增加及特色作物的播种面积大幅提高增加了作物受冻风险,霜冻造成的农作物受灾面积处于上升趋势。
Frost has a great impact on agricultural safety.In order to provide scientific basis for preventing the local frost damage,temperature and meteorological disaster data of 57 meteorological stations in Gansu Province from 1961 to 2017 are used to study the variation trend of frost days at different levels(light,medium,and heavy frosts)and its impact on agriculture by applying the trend coefficient,cumulative anomaly,and Mann-Kendall(MK)methods.The results show that:(1)The number of frost days at different levels in Gansu appear significant downward trends,i.e.,the number of light,medium,heavy,early and late frost days decrease with decline rates of-2.3d(10a)-1,-1.8d(10a)-1,-1.2d(10a)-1,-1.2d(10a)-1,and-1.1d(10a)-1 respectively.Especially from 2010 to 2017,the reduction is the most significant.(2)The number of frost days at different levels in all regions of Gansu show consistent downward trend.The central part of Hexi and the northern part of Gannan are areas where the frost days decreased most,and the frost days in Longnan and most of eastern Gansu are less decreased.(3)The end time of the late frost in Gansu is becoming earlier and earlier in recent 57years,while the appearing time of early frost has a tendency to delay.The early arrival of the end of late frostin Gannan(with the longest frost period)is the most obvious,while the delay of the early frost in Longnan(with the shortest frost period)is the most obvious.(4)After the end of the 1990s,the risk of crop freezing and the area suffered from frost damage are increasing because of the rapid increase of the accumulative temperature greater than 10°C and the significant increases of planting areas of forestry and orchard industry and special vegetable industry.
作者
程瑛
吴晶
李红
黄武斌
王小巍
CHENG Ying;WU Jing;LI Hong;HUANG Wubin;WANG Xiaowei(Lanzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Lanzhou 730020,China;Northwest Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020,China;Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorology Administration/Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期37-46,共10页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41505036)~~
关键词
甘肃省
霜冻
演变特征
农业
影响因素
Gansu province
frost
variation characteristics
agriculture
influencing factors
