摘要
区域水资源承载力评价是开展水资源承载力监测预警的重要基础。为定量评价区域水资源承载状况及时空演变特征,将区域水资源承载力系统分解为承载支撑力、承载压力和承载调控力3个子系统,采用Logistic关联模型计算了不同子系统与不同承载等级之间的联系数,再用风险矩阵综合各子系统的水资源承载力评价结果,形成基于Logistic关联分析的区域水资源承载力评价方法。将上述方法应用于安徽省水资源承载力评价中,结果表明:①安徽省水资源承载力整体呈变好的发展趋势,皖北大部分地区呈现超载状态,皖中处在临界超载状态,皖南处在可载状态,水资源承载状况由北往南逐渐好转;②安徽省水资源承载支撑力子系统皖南地区优于皖中和皖北地区,压力子系统皖北地区优于皖中和皖南地区,调控力子系统皖中和皖南地区较好。
Evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity is an important basis for monitoring and early warning of water resources carrying capacity. In order to quantitatively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity and its spatial temporal evolution characteristics of different cities, firstly, based on the decomposition of regional water resources carrying capacity system into three subsystems of bearing sup port capacity, bearing pressure and bearing control capacity, the paper calculated the number of links between different subsystems and dif ferent bearing levels by using Logistic grey relational model. Secondly, an evaluation method of regional water resources carrying capacity based on the coupling model of Logistic grey relational analysis and risk matrix was proposed. Finally, the above methods were applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of different cities in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2015 to carry out empirical research. The ap plication results show that a) the calculation results of the model in Anhui Province are in agreement with the actual situation and the result of calculation shows a trend of gradual improvement. But judging from the spatial distribution, in most areas of north Anhui has overload state, is in critical state of overload in Anhui, Anhui in loading state, water resources bearing condition improved gradually from north to south;b) on the whole, the water resources carrying support subsystem of Anhui Province is better in southern Anhui than those of in central Anhui and northern Anhui, the pressure bearing subsystem is better in northern Anhui than that of in central Anhui and southern Anhui and the load regulating subsystem is preferred in central Anhui and southern Anhui.
作者
白露
吴成国
金菊良
周立洋
宁少尉
BAI Lu;WU Chengguo;JIN Juliang;ZHOU Liyang;NING Shaowei(College of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;CSCEC AECOM Consultants Co.,Ltd.,Lanzhou 730000,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第12期43-49,共7页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401303,2016YFC0401305)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51579059,51709071)
关键词
系统评价
水资源承载力
Logistic灰关联分析
风险矩阵
联系数
安徽省
system evaluation
water resources carrying capacity
logistic grey relational analysis
risk matrix
connection number
Anhui Province
