摘要
采用1981-2018年江苏省盐城市气温、降水以及日照时数观测资料,分析了盐城市近38年来的气候变化特征,并探讨了其对农业生产的影响。结果表明,近38年来盐城市年平均温度、四季平均气温均呈显著上升变化趋势,年平均气温的气候倾向率为0.426℃/10年;春、夏、秋、冬四季平均气温的气候倾向率分别为0.574、0.392、0.382、0.355℃/10年。盐城市降水量整体上呈波动增加的变化趋势,气候倾向率为10.11 mm/10年,增加趋势并不明显。盐城市降水年际间波动起伏变化特别大,易引发旱涝灾害,给农业生产造成不利影响。盐城市日照时数主要呈下降的变化趋势,气候倾向率-117.52 h/10年。气候显著变暖,降水量年际间大幅波动以及日照时数显著下降均会影响到盐城市水热光资源的平衡性,进而对各类农作物的正常生长发育以及作物病虫害造成一定影响。只有采取科学有效的措施及时应对异常气候变化,才可以推动盐城市农业持续、健康发展。
Based on the observed data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in Yancheng City from 1981 to 2018,the climatic characteristics of Yancheng City in recent 38 years were analyzed,and its impact on agricultural production was discussed. The results showed that the annual average temperature and the four seasons average temperature in Yancheng City have shown a significant upward trend in the past 38 years. The climatic tendency rate of the annual average temperature was 0.426℃per 10 years. The climatic tendency rates of the average temperature in spring,summer,autumn and winter were 0.574,0.392,0.382 and 0.355℃ per 10 years,respectively. The precipitation in Yancheng City showed a fluctuating and increasing trend as a whole. The climatic tendency rate was 10.11 mm per 10 years,and the increasing trend was not obvious. The annual fluctuation of precipitation in Yancheng City was very large,which was easy to cause drought and flood disasters,and had a negative impact on agricultural production. The sunshine hours in Yancheng City showed a downward trend with a climatic tendency rate of-117.52 hours per 10 years.Significant warming of climate,large fluctuation of precipitation and significant decrease of sunshine hours will affect the balance of water,heat and light resources in Yancheng City,and then affect the normal growth and development of various crops and crop diseases and insect pests. Only by taking scientific and effective measures to deal with abnormal climate change in time can we promote the sustainable and healthy development of agriculture in Yancheng City.
作者
盛也
SHENG Ye(Yancheng Meteorologic 11 Bureau,Yancheng,Jiangsu 224000)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2019年第6期53-54,共2页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
盐城市
气候变化特征
农业生产
影响
Yancheng City
Climate change characteristics
Agricultural production
Impact
