摘要
旨在探讨山东省各市农业抗旱能力的强弱、空间分布特征以及主要影响因素。在分析农业抗旱能力影响因素的基础上,笔者构建农业抗旱能力综合评价指标体系,分别用层次分析法(AHP)、熵值法(EM)和主成分分析法(PCA)对山东省农业抗旱能力进行综合评价,为了避免评价结果的非一致性,建立循环组合优化模型对3种单一评价方法进行组合评价。结果表明:将山东省17个市的农业抗旱能力进行了强弱排序,并根据聚类分析结果把17个市分为4类,得出了各类地区农业抗旱能力的主要影响因素。循环组合优化评价方法提高了评价结果的准确性和一致性,针对不同类型的区域提出了相应措施以增强农业抗旱能力,进而为山东抗旱规划和旱灾风险管理提供科学参考。
The paper aims to explore the strength, spatial distribution characteristics and main influencing factors of agricultural drought resistance in Shandong. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of agricultural drought resistance, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural drought resistance, and carried out the comprehensive evaluation for agricultural drought resistance in Shandong by using Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method, Entropy method(EM) and Principal Component Analysis(PCA) method. To avoid the inconsistency of the evaluation results, we built the circulating revision of combination optimization model to unify the evaluation results. The results showed that: the agricultural drought resistances of 17 cities in Shandong were ranked by strength and weakness;according to the cluster analysis, the 17 cities were divided into 4 categories, and the main influencing factors of agricultural drought resistance in each type of area were obtained. The circulating revision of combination optimization evaluation method can improve the accuracy and consistency of the evaluation results. We propose corresponding measures for each type of area to improve the agricultural drought resistance, which provides a scientific reference for drought prevention planning and drought risk management in Shandong.
作者
黎业
覃志豪
独文惠
包阿茹汗
Li Ye;Qin Zhihao;Du Wenhui;Baoaruhan(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,CAAS/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Technology,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2019年第35期134-140,共7页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“农作物旱情遥感监测中像元地表温度可比性校正方法研究”(41771406)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程协同创新项目课题“空天地网农业监测大数据挖掘与深度分析关键技术研究”(CAASXTCX2016007-4)
关键词
农业抗旱能力
综合评价
组合优化
指标体系
山东
agricultural drought resistance
comprehensive evaluation
combination optimization
index system
Shandong
