摘要
目的分析我国南方5省媒介伊蚊幼蚊密度相关性并建立回归模型,为以登革热为代表的媒介伊蚊传播疾病风险评估、预测预警及科学防控提供科学依据。方法收集我国2012-2018年登革热I类省份媒介伊蚊监测点的布雷图指数(BI)、房屋指数(HI)、容器指数(CI)、诱蚊诱卵器指数(MOI)和千人指数等伊蚊幼蚊密度指标,各指标间进行相关性和回归分析,并利用回归模型对各省幼蚊密度进行预测。结果除福建省福州市(连江县)BI与CI相关性无统计学意义外(P>0.05),其他各省媒介伊蚊BI与CI、HI、MOI、千人指数之间均呈正相关(P<0.05)。云南省西双版纳州(勐海县)BI与HI、千人指数及福建省福州市(连江县)BI与千人指数回归模型拟合效果好(R^2分别为0.928、0.992和0.957);广东省广州市(海珠区)BI与MOI及福建省福州市(连江县)BI与CI的回归模型拟合效果相对较差(R^2分别为0.403和0.340)。云南省西双版纳州(勐海县)千人指数预测值和广西省钦州市(大路街)CI预测值的平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)均<10%,回归模型预测效果好。结论南方5省的媒介伊蚊幼蚊密度各指标间存在相关性,回归方程可定量反映不同幼蚊密度指标之间关系且预测效果较好,可为我国各地媒介伊蚊监测、预测和媒介伊蚊传播疾病科学防控提供依据。
Objective To analyze the correlation relationship and establish regression models between Aedes larvae density in the five southern provinces of China so as to provide scientific basis for risk assessment,forecasting and early-warning and scientific control of Aedes-borne diseases represented by dengue fever. Methods The Breteau Index(BI), Container Index(CI), House Index(HI), Mosq-ovitrap Index(MOI)and Thousand-person Index of Aedes surveillance sites were collected in category I provinces of dengue in China from 2012 to 2018.Correlation and regression analysis were carried out between the indexes,and Aedes larvae density of five provinces was predicted by regression models. Results There was no correlation(P>0.05) between BI and CI in Fuzhou(Lianjiang County) of Fujian. A positive correlation(P<0.05) was observed between BI and CI, HI, MOI, Thousand-person Index in other provinces. There was a good fitting effect of regression models, not only between BI and HI, thousand-person Index in Xishuangbanna(Menghai County) of Yunnan, but also between BI and thousand-person Index in Fuzhou(Lianjiang County) of Fujian, and the R^2s were 0.928, 0.992 and 0.997 respectively. There was an unsatisfactory fitting effect of regression models,not only between BI and MOI in Guangzhou(Haizhu District) of Guangdong,but also between BI and CI in Fuzhou(Lianjiang County) of Fujian, and the R^2s were 0.403 and 0.304 respectively. The MAPE of thousand-person Index predicted values in Xishuangbanna(Menghai County) of Yunnan and CI predicted values in Qinzhou(Dalu Street) of Guangxi were both less than 10%,and the regression models displayed good prediction effect.Conclusion There is a correlation between Aedes larvae density indexes in the five provinces of China,and the regression equations could reveal the relationship between different Aedes larvae density indexes quantitatively with good prediction effect,which could provide scientific basis for Aedes surveillance,prediction and Aedes-borne diseases control in different regions of China.
作者
黄坤
孙文锴
郭玉红
赵童
吴海霞
母群征
宋秀平
岳玉娟
任东升
赵宁
李贵昌
王君
鲁亮
刘小波
刘起勇
HUANG Kun;SUN Wen-kai;GUYu-hong;ZHAO Tong;WU Hai-xia;MU Qun-zheng;SONG Xiu-ping;YUE Yu-juan;REN Dong-sheng;ZHANing;LI Gui-chang;WANG Jun;LU Liang;LIU Xiao-bo;LIU Qi-yong(State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases,WHO Collaborating Centre for Vector Surveillance and Management,Beijing 102206,China;School of Public Health.Shandong First Medical University,Taian 271016,China)
出处
《中华卫生杀虫药械》
CAS
2019年第6期549-554,共6页
Chinese Journal of Hygienic Insecticides and Equipments
基金
国家科技重大专项(编号:2017ZX10303404005001)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(编号:81703280)
