摘要
以我国2008~2016年跨境电商与跨境物流行业相关统计数据为样本,采用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及基于VAR模型的动态关系分析等计量经济学研究方法验证跨境电商与跨境物流的协同关系。研究结果表明:跨境电商与跨境物流高度正相关,二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且互为格兰杰因果关系。从长期来看,跨境电商与跨境物流的关系主要表现为相互正向促进作用,但也存在一定相互抑制关系,且跨境电商对跨境物流的长期依赖性要强于跨境物流对跨境电商的依赖;从短期来看,跨境电商主要受自身因素影响,而跨境物流则受跨境电商影响较大,跨境物流与跨境电商关系也主要表现为同向变动,且跨境物流的增长在短期内对跨境电商增长并没有明显的反向抑制作用。总的来说,我国跨境电商与跨境物流在2008~2016年间初步呈现良好协同关系,但协同关系显著性水平相对较低,表明二者协同发展的条件和关系仍有待进一步改善。在此基础上,从健全协同支撑服务体系、完善协同机制、提升协同能力等3方面提出协同建议。
By taking the relevant statistical data of cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics in China from 2008 to 2016 as example, the article uses econometric research methods, such as cointegration test, Granger causality test and VAR model analysis of dynamic relationship, to verify the synergy relationship of cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics. The results show that cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics are highly related, and the two have long-term stable equilibrium relationship, and they share inter-Granger causality. In the long run, the relationship between cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics is largely positive, but there exists a mutual inhibitory effect, and the long-term dependence of cross-border logistics on cross-border e-commerce is greater than the reverse;In the short term, cross-border e-commerce is mainly affected by itself, while cross-border logistics are affected more by cross-border e-commerce rather than itself;The relationship between the two are mainly manifested in the direction changes they share, and the growth of cross-border logistics has no obvious reverse inhibitory effect on the growth of cross-border e-commerce in the short term. Overall, China’s cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics are beginning to form a good synergy relationship with each other in the year of 2008 to 2016, but the significance of synergy relationship is relatively low, and it shows that the conditions and relationship of synergy development still need to be further improved. On this basis, we put forward recommendations for the synergy strategies in terms of improving synergy support service system, perfecting the synergy mechanism, enhancing synergy ability.
作者
何江
钱慧敏
HE Jiang;QIAN Huimin(School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;School of Management, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China)
出处
《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期37-47,共11页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划基金一般项目:“物流企业‘智慧+共享’模式实现路径研究”(2017BGL027)
关键词
跨境电子商务
跨境物流
协同关系
协整检验
格兰杰因果检验
VAR模型
cross-border e-commerce
cross-border logistics
synergy relationship
co-integration test
Granger causality test
VAR model
