摘要
选取山东省1993—2016年的相关数据,采用VEC矢量误差修正模型分析农村产业结构、农村金融与农村人力资本的内在逻辑关系。结果表明:(1)山东省农村产业结构与农村金融、农村人力资本之间具有长期均衡关系和短期修正机制。农村金融与农村人力资本长期内有利于农村产业结构优化升级,在偏离均衡关系时各变量将以不同的方向和速度向长期均衡状态修正。(2)农村产业结构与农村金融在短期内呈现出微弱的互相牵制滞后效应。农村金融机构“在商言商”的市场属性使其在缺乏产业支撑时会降低农村金融服务供给意愿,进而导致农村产业发展面临严峻资金约束,制约农村产业结构优化升级。(3)农村产业结构与农村人力资本在短期内呈现出显著的互相促进滞后效应。政府政策“公共服务性”保证山东省农村人力资本要素稳定投入,进而实现农村产业结构与农村人力资本的良性互动发展。(4)实现金融资本、人力资本等要素对农村产业结构的作用最大化,既需要农村产业与各要素的有效耦合,又需要政府部门保障要素供给的制度性安排。
With relevant data of Shandong Province from 1993 to 2016,the paper analyzed the internal logical relationship among rural industrial structure,rural finance and rural human capital in Shandong Prov⁃ince,used VEC vector error correction model.The study found that:First,there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term correction mechanism among rural industrial structure,rural finance and rural hu⁃man capital in Shandong Province.Rural finance and rural human capital are conducive to the optimization and upgrading of rural industrial structure in the long run.When deviating from equilibrium,variables will be cor⁃rected to long-term equilibrium in different directions and speeds.Second,the rural industrial structure and rural finance have presented a weak mutual restricting effect in the short term.The market attribute of“in-thebusiness talks”of rural financial institutions reduces the willingness to supply rural financial services and re⁃stricts the optimization and upgrading of rural industrial structure.Third,the rural industrial structure and rural human capital present a significant mutual restricting effect in the short term.The government policy of“public service”guarantees the stable investment of rural human capital elements in Shandong Province,and realizes the benign interactive development of rural industrial structure and rural human capital.Fourth,to maximize the role of financial capital,human capital and other factors in the rural industrial structure requires effective coupling of rural industries and various factors as well as the institutional arrangements for government depart⁃ments to guarantee the supply of factors.
作者
梁杰
高强
李宪宝
LIANG Jie;GAO Qiang;LI Xian-bao(School of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao,Shandong 266100,China)
出处
《农林经济管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期725-732,共8页
Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目（71273248）
教育部人文社会科学研究项目（19YJCZH150）
山东省社会科学规划研究项目（18CJJJ16)
关键词
农村金融
农村产业结构
农村人力资本
乡村振兴
rural finance
rural industrial structure
rural human capital
rural revitalization
