摘要
为研究未来气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流的影响,构建了0.1°分辨率VIC水文模型,采用均匀设计法率定参数。应用CMIP5多模式气象数据结果驱动VIC模型,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的鄱阳湖流域径流变化进行评估。结果表明,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下未来期(2026—2040年)较基准期(2006—2020年)径流呈增加趋势,在RCP8.5情景下径流呈减少趋势。各种模式都在汛期径流有增加趋势,枯季径流有减小趋势,发生水文极端事件的态势更加明显。
In order to study the influence of future climate change on runoff in the Poyang Lake Basin,the VIC hydrological model with 0.1°resolution was constructed and the parameters were calibrated by the uniform design method.The CMIP5 multi-model meteorological dataset were used to drive the VIC model to evaluate the runoff changes in the Poyang Lake Basin under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results show that under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5,the runoff during the future period(2026—2040)is higher than that during the baseline period(2006—2020),and the runoff under the RCP8.5 scenario is decreasing.The runoff of all models has an increasing trend in the flood season,while it has a decreasing trend in the dry season,which indicated that the occurrence of hydrological extreme events is even more obvious.
作者
邓鹏
孙善磊
黄鹏年
DENG Peng;SUN Shanlei;HUANG Pengnian(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期39-45,共7页
Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)
基金
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20150922)。
