摘要
笔者从内生风险框架出发,结合传统金融系统性风险的加速器机制和反馈机制,对金融科技业务和技术两个层面的系统性风险进行梳理分析。笔者重点关注三个案例:(1)互联网借贷(P2P)业务。与传统融资平台相比,P2P平台通过资金渠道和预期渠道等加剧了负向冲击下的加速器机制,使得内生风险迅速在业务部门内部放大,并可能对传统金融领域造成风险溢出。(2)人工智能(AI)技术。金融部门广泛使用AI会导致投资决策过程的“合成谬误”,造成不同投资者投资行为同质化,在反馈机制的作用下最终加剧了内生风险。而AI技术本身只能对外生风险进行微观审慎监管,无法对共振引发的内生风险进行有效识别。(3)数字货币。当前去中心化的私人数字货币容易通过正反馈机制形成资产价格泡沫,风险敞口较大;若以此为基础演化为法定数字货币,不仅无法消除现有的货币杠杆顺周期性问题,反而会加大央行实行最后贷款人功能进行流动性救助的难度,因此我国法定数字货币的发展方向必须坚持中心化的原则。
Based on the endogenous risks framework,combined with the accelerator mechanism and feedback mechanism of traditional systemic financial risk,this paper analyzes the systemic risk of Fintech in terms of business and technology.This article focuses on three cases:(1)Internet lending(P2P)business.Compared with traditional financial platforms,P2P platforms have exacerbated the accelerator mechanism under negative shocks through funding channel and expected channel,which has caused endogenous risks to rapidly build up and amplify within the business sector and may cause risk spillovers to the traditional financial sectors.(2)Artificial intelligence(AI)technology.The widespread use of AI in the financial sector will lead to the“the fallacy of composition”of the investment decision-making process,causing homogeneity of investment behavior of different investors,and ultimately exacerbating endogenous risks under the effect of the feedback mechanism.The AI itself can only perform micro-prudence on exogenous risks,and cannot effectively identify the endogenous risks caused by resonance.(3)Digital currency.The current decentralized private digital currency is easy to form asset price bubbles through positive feedback mechanism,and the risk exposure is large.If it evolves into fiat digital currency on this basis,it will not eliminate the problem of procyclicality of the existing currency leverage,moreover,it will increase the difficulty for the central bank to implement the function of lender of last restor(LOLR)to provide liquidity assistance.Therefore,the development direction of fiat digital currency in China must insist on the principle of centralization.
作者
方意
王羚睿
王炜
王晏如
FANG Yi;WANG Ling-rui;WANG Wei;WANG Yan-ru
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期29-37,共9页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“金融周期视角下的中国银行业系统性风险防范与化解研究”(项目编号:71973162)
“风险承担、负面冲击与银行信贷风险:基于我国信贷大数据的实证研究”(项目编号71703182)
“汇率市场变化、跨境资本流动与金融风险防范”(项目编号71850005)
“基于GAS模型的系统性金融风险测度及其在宏观经济预测中的应用研究”(项目编号:71801117)
中央财经大学青年科研创新团队项目“中国金融部门系统性风险与金融稳定政策”
中央财经大学“青年英才”培育支持计划“房地产市场调控背景下中国系统性金融风险的形成机制分析”(项目编号:QYP1906)
