摘要
2000年以来,中澳关系在一个比较长的时期中保持了良好发展态势。但自2016—2018年,中澳关系出现较大幅度恶化,这主要是澳大利亚主动采取消极行为的结果。在中国不构成对澳大利亚的安全威胁、双方的经济合作为澳大利亚带来很大经济利益、中方具有推动中澳关系发展意愿的情况下,澳大利亚在2016年和2017年的对华态度却发生了转折性变化,这令人困惑。作者认为,澳大利亚对华态度转变的主要原因不是美国对澳大利亚施加的战略压力,而是澳大利亚在不确定性增强的国际体系中高度重视国际秩序的稳定,并把中国视为可能冲击现有国际秩序稳定性的主要国家。随着2018年美国特朗普政府采取了一系列冲击国际秩序特别是国际经贸秩序稳定性的做法,澳大利亚在一定程度上改变了对冲击国际秩序的主要国家的认识,其对华政策也相应做出调整。这使得中澳关系出现新的发展契机。这一分析有助于更好地认知一些安全、经济环境较好的中等强国的国际行为,为中澳关系的改善提供一种思考路径。
Since 2000,Sino⁃Australian relations had maintained a good development trend for a long time,but from 2016 to 2018,Sino⁃Australian relations have declined by a large margin,which is mainly the result of Australias political behavior.Under the circumstances that China does not pose a security threat to Australia,the economic cooperation between the two sides has brought great economic benefits to Australia,and China is willing to continue to develop Sino⁃Australian relations.The turn in Australias attitude towards China from 2016 to 2017 is unusual.This paper holds that the main reason for the change in Australias attitude towards China is not the strategic pressure of the United States on Australia,but that Australia attaches great importance to the stability of the international order under the increasing uncertainty of the inter⁃national system.Australia regards China as a major country that may impact on the stability of the existing rules⁃based international order.With the Trump administration adopting a series of measures to impact on the stability of the existing international or⁃der,especially the stability of the existing international economic and trade order,in 2018,Australia has changed its understanding as to which country is the greater chal⁃lenge to the international order.Its policy towards China has also been adjusted ac⁃cordingly,resulting in new opportunities for the development of Sino⁃Australian rela⁃tions.The analysis of this paper is helpful to get a better understanding of the interna⁃tional behavior of some middle powers with beneficial security and economic environ⁃ment,and provides different approach to thinking for the improvement of Sino⁃Austral⁃ian relations.
作者
周方银
Zhou Fangyin(School of International Relations,Guangdong University)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期22-59,155,156,共40页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
国际秩序
中澳关系
美澳同盟
威胁认知
international order
Sino⁃Australian relations
US⁃Australia alliance
threat cognition
