摘要
基于全国31个省(区、市)356个地(市)1363个县(市、区)7549位新生代农村转移劳动力的调查数据,运用结构方程模型,分析了新生代农村劳动力的转移效应及其关系。结果表明:新生代农村劳动力的转移效应主要有羊群效应、融入效应、溢出效应、饱和效应、虹吸效应和极化效应,这6个效应从羊群效应到极化效应会通过中间环节发生连锁反应或影响;羊群效应使大量新生代农村劳动力向城市转移,他们通过融入效应向市民转变,由此产生的溢出效应给流入地和流出地带来一系列的影响,并且当流入城市的数量达到一定程度时,由于饱和效应的存在,农村劳动力的市民化变得非常困难;新生代农村劳动力流出产生的虹吸效应导致农村流出地衰落,同时,农村劳动力的回流、城市的反哺及农村资源向部分村庄聚集等产生的极化效应,又能够使一部分农村发展起来。
Based on the survey data of 7549 new-generation rural migrant workers in 1,363 counties(cities, districts) of 356 prefecture-level cities in 31 provinces(cities and autonomous region), this paper analyzes the transfer effects and relationship of new generation rural labor force by using the structural equation model. The results show that: The transfer effects formed in the transfer of new generation of rural labor force mainly include the herd effect, the integration effect, the spillover effect, the saturation effect, the siphon effect and the polarization effect, and there is a chain reaction or effect among these six effects. A large portion of rural labor force of new generation moves to cities due to the herd effect, then is transformed into citizen due to the integration effect, thus correspondingly brings impact to the places of inflow and outflow due to spillover effect. Meanwhile, it becomes very difficult for rural workers to become city citizens because of the saturation effect when the rural labor force flowing into the city reaches a certain level. The outflow of the new generation of rural labor force leads to the decline of the rural area where the labor force flows out due to the siphon effect. At the same time some rural areas develop due to the polarization effect which comes into effect because of the backflow of rural labor force, the regurgitation of cities and the aggregation of rural resources to some villages.
作者
张务伟
张福明
ZHANG Wuwei;ZHANG Fuming(School of Economic and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China;School of Business,Liaocheng University,Liaocheng 252059,China)
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期32-40,共9页
Economic Survey
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY108)
