摘要
扩大进口对促进中国对外贸易平衡发展、减少贸易摩擦和提升企业绩效具有重要的战略意义。本文在一个准自然实验的框架下,采用倍差法系统研究了永久正常贸易关系(PNTR)政策实施后贸易政策不确定性(TPU)变化对中国企业进口的影响效应、作用机制及其经济后果。结果发现:(1)TPU下降不仅显著促进了企业进口规模的扩大,而且还有利于提高企业进口概率、延长进口持续期和提升进口产品质量;(2)从驱动因素来看,生产规模扩张和融资约束缓解是TPU下降扩大企业进口规模的重要渠道,从构成来看,TPU下降主要通过进口种类和进口集约边际扩张途径促进了企业进口规模扩大;(3)异质性分析表明,TPU下降对一般贸易企业、出口型企业、民营企业进口规模扩大的促进作用更大,另外从产品类型看,TPU下降对企业中间品进口的促进作用最大,其次是资本品进口,而对消费品进口没有明显的影响;(4)TPU下降显著提高了企业生产率,促进了企业产品质量升级和技术复杂度的提升以及促进了企业创新,进口贸易尤其是进口种类增加和进口质量提升是TPU下降提升企业绩效的重要原因。
Expanding the volume of imports is strategically important to maintaining a balance in China s foreign trade,reducing trade friction and improving firms performance.The Chinese government is attaching increasing importance to the development of import trade,and has issued a series of policies to encourage imports.Thus,expanding import volumes is an important strategy by which China can develop its foreign economic and trade relations in the new economic era.Since China s accession to the WTO,its import trade has grown substantially,and at present it is the world s second largest importer,after the United States.Although the role of import trade has been widely studied in the academic literature,especially regarding its effect on firm performance,few studies have examined the factors influencing firms import volumes,and the role of external trade policy uncertainty has been entirely ignored.The permanent normal trade relationship(PNTR)status granted by the United States after China s accession to the WTO provides a rare quasi-natural experiment for us to study the effect of trade policy uncertainty(TPU)on firms imports,and the mechanisms of this effect.We analyze Chinese firm-level data from 2000 to 2013,and find that decreasing TPU substantially promotes the expansion of firms import volumes,increases firms import probability,extends import duration and improves the quality of imported products.Mechanistic tests show that decreasing TPU increases firms import volumes by increasing firms production scale and thus easing their financial constraints,and by expanding import variety and intensive margins.Another important finding of this paper is that substantially decreased TPU increases firms productivity,promotes the improvement of firms export quality and technological sophistication,and fosters firms innovation.Similarly,increased import variety and quality are the primary channels through which decreased TPU improves firms performance.This paper has important policy implications.As decreasing TPU plays a significant role in promoting the expansion of import scale and import quality of Chinese enterprises,the Chinese government should actively explore the formulation of international rules,participate in international bilateral or multilateral trade dialogues,and reduce the uncertainty of external trade policies through the implementation of the“Belt and Road”initiative and the signing of free trade agreements.In addition,Chinese firms should actively increase import volumes and their own development strategies,which should involve the importation of foreign advanced production technology and management experience and high-quality core parts and technical equipment to increase productivity and technological innovation,thus supporting the transformation of the Chinese industrial structure and manufacturing industry.This study makes the following contributions to the field.First,it is one of the first to systematically investigate the effect of external trade policy uncertainty on Chinese firms import volumes,thus enriching and expanding the research evaluating the trade effect of decreasing TPU.Second,it uses PNTR as a quasi-natural experiment,and adopts a difference-in-differences method to empirically investigate the causal effect of decreasing TPU on firms import volumes.Third,it includes an in-depth examination of the determinants of firms import volumes from the perspective of changing external trade policies,which provides a new explanation for the rapid growth of import trade after China s accession to the WTO.Finally,this study explores the economic consequences of decreasing TPU and firms import volumes,enriching the research on the evaluation of economic performance due to TPU.
作者
毛其淋
MAO Qilin(Multinational Corporation Research Center,Nankai University;Institute of International Economics,School of Economics,Nankai University;Chinese Characteristic Socialist Economic Construction Cooperative Innovation Center)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期148-164,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71773055)
霍英东教育基金会高等院校青年教师基金(171075)
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(19FJYB049)
南开大学百名青年学科带头人培养计划的资助
关键词
贸易政策不确定性
进口
融资约束
企业绩效
Trade Policy Uncertainty
Import
Financial Constraint
Firm Performance
