摘要
中国正处在从制造业向服务业的经济结构转型过程中,但服务业仍存在各种因素造成的供给抑制现象。构建包含这两个特征的结构转型模型,可以证明这两个特征的结合将造成供求错配、产能过剩和内需不足等问题,使得经济增速低于潜在水平。基于理论模型和数值模拟的分析表明,逐步消除服务业供给抑制现象,扩大服务业有效供给,实施有利于扩大消费的总需求管理政策,推动积极财政政策从支持生产为主向支持消费为主转变,不仅可以有效扩展内需,提高经济增速,而且不会危及公共债务的可持续性。
China's economic structure is undergoing a transition from manufacturing industry to the service sector,but there are still supply restraints due to various factors in the service sector.Construction of a structural transition model of these two features can show that their combination leads to a mismatch of supply and demand,a problem of overcapacity,and insufficient domestic demand,leaving economic growth below potential.Analysis of our theoretical model and numerical simulation shows that we should eliminate supply restraints and expand effective supply in the service industry,implement a management policy conducive to expanding total consumption demand and promote the transformation of active fiscal policy from taking supporting production as the main task to taking supporting consumption as the main task.This will not only effectively expand domestic demand and lift economic growth but will also refrain from jeopardizing the sustainability of public debt.
作者
徐朝阳
张斌
Xu Zhaoyang;Zhang Bin
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期64-83,205,共21页
Social Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“全球价值链与中国竞争力研究”(71433002)
面上项目“预防和化解产能过剩问题的长效机制研究:基于无限期动态博弈模型”(71573039)
对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CXTD10-01)等资助
