摘要
建立了中国CO2排放情景预测与调控路径优化的集成分析框架,分情景预测了中国CO2排放趋势,测算了各部门的减排潜力并给出了相应的调控路径.研究表明,深度能源转型情景下中国CO2排放将在2025年实现达峰目标(102.54×10^8 t)并在2030年实现强度减排目标(0.65t/万元),同时煤炭消费将在2020年达峰(28.11×10^8 tce).未来中国CO2减排的关键在于挖掘经济增长、能源技术进步与能耗结构优化的减排潜力,特别是提高第二部门的能源效率,优化第一部门和第二部门的能耗结构,以及调整第二部门、第四部门和第六部门的经济发展模式.此外,推进能源结构转型和能源技术创新也是实现中国2030年CO2减排双重目标的重要保障.
An integrated analysis framework for China CO2 emission scenario prediction and regulation path optimization is established,The emission trend of China CO2 is predicted by scenario,the emission reduction potential of each departments is calculated and the corresponding regulation path is given.It is found that under the deep energy transition scenario,China’s CO2 emissions will peak in 2025(10.254 billion tons),the intensity reduction target will be realized in 2030(0.65 tons/10^4 yuan),and the coal will peak in 2020(2.811 billion tee).In the future key to China’s CO2 emission reduction is to tap the potential of economic growth,energy technology advancement and energy structure optimization,Especially in the second sector Energy efficiency,optimizing the energy consumption structure of the first and second sectors,and adjusting the economic development model of the second,fourth and sixth sectors.In addition,Promoting the transformation of energy structure and innovation of energy technology is also an important guarantee to achieve China's dual targets of CO2 emission reduction in 2030.
作者
王迪
和维
聂锐
Wang Di;He Wei;Nie Rui(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;Jiangsu Energy Economy and Management Research Base,Xuzhou 221116,China)
出处
《系统工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期721-735,共15页
Journal of Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71974191,71874191)
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(19FGLB057)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重点资助项目(2017ZDIXM162)
中国矿业大学研究生教改资助项目(YJSJG_2017_048)
中国矿业大学文化传承专项-能源矿业经济智库资助项目(2018WHCC01).
