摘要
特朗普政府上台后,不断将中国高科技公司与机构列入美方出口管制"实体清单",技术出口管制已成为美国对中国实施极限施压和战略遏制的重要工具。本文运用GTAP评估了美国加强对华技术出口管制对中美两国经济影响,模拟分析中国采取各种对策的效果,研究表明:第一,美国不断加强对华技术出口管制,中美两国GDP、居民消费支出和资本回流净收益率、社会福利、进出口贸易遭受的负面影响也不断加大。第二,采用"增强自主创新能力"与"加强国际经济技术合作"相结合方式来应对美国技术出口管制,中国不但能够获得更多的宏观经济效益,还可以减少中国出口所遭受的负面影响与扩大中国进口,但可能对美国宏观经济和进出口贸易产生较大不利影响。第三,美方加强对中国技术出口管制,对中美两国生产部门产出影响较小;中国在增强自主创新能力的同时,加强国际经济技术合作,有助于提高美国总产出水平,更有助于提高中国的总产出水平。
Since the Trump administration took office, more and more Chinese high-tech companies and institutions have been added to the American list of entities for export control. Technology export control has become an important tool for the United States to exert extreme pressure and strategic containment against China. This paper uses GTAP to assess the impact of US technology export controls on economies of China and the United States, and simulate and analyze the effects of various measures taken by China. The research shows that: First, if the United States has continuously strengthened its technology export control to China, the negative impacts on Chinese and American GDP, consumer spending and net return on capital return, social welfare, and import and export may be increasing. Second, if China enhances independent innovation capabilities and strengthens international economic and technological cooperation to deal with US technology export control, China will gain more macroeconomic benefits, reduce the negative impacts on Chinese exports and expand its imports. However, it may have larger negative impacts on American macroeconomics, imports & exports.Third, even if the US strengthens its technology export control to China, it will have less impacts on the product outputs of China and the United States.If China strengthens its capacity for independent innovation while strengthening international economic and technological cooperation, it will raise the total output of the United States and may even increase China’s total output.
作者
朱启荣
王玉平
ZHU Qi-rong;WANG Yu-ping
出处
《东北亚论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期54-68,127,128,共17页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
国家社科基金项目（2017BJY068）
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2017GM031)
关键词
技术出口管制
经济影响
自主创新能力
国际经济技术合作
GTAP
Export Control of Technology
Economic Impact
Independent Innovation Ability
International Economic and Technical Cooperation
GTAP
