摘要
目的探讨吲达帕胺常释片和吲达帕胺缓释片在不同市场份额下对医疗保险基金的影响,为临床选择经济适当的药品提供依据。方法利用时间序列中指数平滑法,根据现有市场情况预测吲达帕胺常释片和吲达帕胺缓释片的用量。构建预算影响分析模型,计算吲达帕胺常释片和吲达帕胺缓释片在不同市场份额下的医疗保险基金支出。结果假设情景下,即吲达帕胺常释片和缓释片的市场份额保持2018年的市场状态不变,医疗保险报销费用由2019年的8 509.62万元降低到2023年的6 282.32万元。对照情景下,即吲达帕胺常释片和缓释片按照目前市场状态发展,2019年医疗保险报销费用为8 626.73万元,而2023年降低至6 879.89万元。与假设情景比较,对照情景下2019-2023年医疗保险报销费用增加共计1872.76万元。结论基于目前的模型假设和参数,与吲达帕胺常释片和缓释片的市场份额保持不变情况比较,按照目前市场状态吲达帕胺常释片和缓释片市场份额自然发展,医疗保险基金支出将增加。
Objective To explore the influence of indapamide sustained release tablets and indapamide sustained release tablets on medical insurance fund under different market shares, so as to provide basis for clinical selection of economically appropriate drugs. Methods By using the exponential smoothing method in time series, the dosage of indapamide regular release tablets and indapamide sustained release tablets was predicted according to the existing market conditions. Construct a budget impact analysis model to calculate the medical insurance fund expenditure of indapamide regular-release tablets and indapamide sustained-release tablets under different market shares. A budget impact analysis model was constructed to calculate the medical insurance fund expenditure of indapamide regular-release tablets and indapamide sustained-release tablets under different market shares. Results Under the scenario, the market share of indapamide regular-release tablets and sustained-release tablets remained the same as in 2018, and the medical insurance reimbursement costs was reduced from 85.096 million yuan in 2019 to 62.823 million yuan in 2023. Under the control scenario, that is, indapamide constant-release tablets and sustained-release tablets are developed according to the current market status. The medical insurance reimbursement expenses in 2019 was 86,267,300 yuan, and in 2023, it will be reduced to 68,898,900 yuan. Compared with the hypothetical scenario, under the control scenario, the medical insurance reimbursement expenses will increase by RMB 18,872,600 from 2019-2023. Conclusion Based on the current model assumptions and parameters, compared with the situation where the market share of indapamide regular release and sustained release tablets remains unchanged, according to the current market status, the market share of indapamide regular release and sustained release tablets has naturally developed. Insurance fund spending increased.
作者
宋佳芳
刘雪丽
朱贺
韩晟
SONG Jia-Fang;LIU Xue-Li;ZHU He;HAN Sheng(International Research Center for Medicinal Administration,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China)
出处
《中国药物经济学》
2019年第12期15-19,24,共6页
China Journal of Pharmaceutical Economics
关键词
吲达帕胺
高血压
时间序列
指数平滑法
预算影响分析
Indapamide
Hypertension
Time series
Exponential smoothing
Budget impact analysis
