摘要
设计前沿技术预测总体思路是开展前沿技术预测的重要基础和前提条件。文章分析了前沿技术预测主要作用和特点,研究了前沿技术预测概念和目标,提出了"识(Identity)-研(Research)-决(Decision)"前沿技术预测总体思路,详细描述了前沿技术识别、研判和决策的方法和步骤,分析了由构建技术树、确定重点和精准跟踪等组成的前沿技术识别初步思路,构建了基于"技术概率+技术影响"的前沿技术研判矩阵,提出了前沿技术决策的初步思路。研究结论可为科学实施前沿技术预测工作提供理论参考和借鉴。
The general idea of front technologies forecasting is an important foundation and prerequisite for front technologies forecasting. This paper analyzed the main functions and characteristics of front technologies forecasting,studied the concept and objectives of front technologies forecasting,put forward the general idea of "Identity-Research-Decision"front technologies forecasting,described the methods and steps of front technologies identification,research and decision in detail,analyzed the preliminary ideas of front technology identification consisting of building technology tree,identifying key points and precise tracking,constructed the front technologies matrix based on"technology probability + technology impact",put forward the preliminary ideas of front technology decision-making. The research conclusion provided theoretical reference for scientific implementation of front technologies forecasting.
出处
《情报理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期56-60,共5页
Information Studies:Theory & Application
基金
国家自然科学资金应急咨询项目“军民融合多层次评价方法及统计体系研究”(项目编号:71841052)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大委托项目子项目“军民融合评估研究”(项目编号:18JDW02)的成果
关键词
前沿技术
技术预测
技术研判
front technology
technology forecasting
technology identification
