摘要
世界正经历大发展大变革大调整,变与不变相互交织。中美贸易摩擦作为全球地缘政治紧张局势的组成部分,长期性、严峻性日益凸显,加强中美能源行业合作有助于破解两国贸易摩擦僵局。国际能源治理格局继续深刻调整,美国、沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯将成为能源治理体系实际权力掌控者,但需求方提升话语权的诉求亦将日益强烈。气候变化压力推动能源向绿色低碳转型,但化石能源在能源结构中的主体地位2050年前不会改变。全球油气供需格局趋于宽松,未来5年国际油气价格有望保持中低位运行。中国营商环境持续改善,朝着更加市场化、法治化、国际化的方向发展,为能源合作创造良好环境。为适应能源转型和技术变革,未来石油公司发展将呈现"归核化"和综合性的特点。
The world is undergoing great development,changes,and adjustments,while some stay the same.As a component of global geopolitical tensions,Sino-US trade frictions are becoming increasingly prolonged and serious.Energy industry cooperation can help resolve the deadlock in trade frictions between these two countries.The international energy governance structure continues to see profound adjustments.The United States,Saudi Arabia,and Russia will become the actual heavyweights of the energy governance system while demand-sides’demands for improving the right to speak will become increasingly stronger.The pressure of climate change promotes green and low-carbon transformation of energy,but the dominant position of fossil energy in the energy structure will remains until 2050.The global oil&gas supply and demand pattern has become looser and international oil prices will remain at a medium-low level in the next five years.In recent years,business environment in China has continued to improve and the business environment of oil and gas industry is more market-oriented,law-oriented,and internationalized creating a favorable environment for energy cooperation.In order to adapt to the energy transitions and the changes in technology,the development of oil companies in the future will characterized as refocusing and comprehensiveness.
作者
吴谋远
石卫
康煜
刘月洋
熊靓
陈嘉茹
黄映嘉
WU Mouyuan;SHI Wei;KANG Yu;LIU Yueyang;XIONG Liang;CHEN Jiaru;HUANG Yingjia(CNPC Economics&Technology Research Institute)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2020年第1期21-27,35,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
大变革
贸易摩擦
能源治理体系
气候变化
油气供需格局
营商环境
能源合作
技术变革
reconfiguration
trade frictions
energy governance system
climate change
oil and gas supply and demand pattern
business environment
energy cooperation
technological change
