摘要
采用NOAA冰雪数据中心1979—2017年北半球海冰资料、中国气象局热带气旋资料中心1979—2018年台风资料,对登陆广东台风和北半球海冰的主要特征进行统计和分析,并对上一年和当年上半年北半球海冰范围与登陆广东台风的关系进行探讨。结果表明:每年均有台风登陆广东,常年平均3.5个。登陆台风中,STS级别最多,常年平均1.3个;TY、TD、TS、STY次之;SuperTY级别有2个。北半球海冰范围有明显的时间变化,1—5月为正距平,7—11月为负距平,其中6月正距平占54%,负距平占46%,1994年前为正距平,2001年转为负距平后一直维持;12月在2016年首次出现负距平,发生质变,其它为正距平。逐月分布呈单峰型,3月达到峰值,9月是谷值。年代际变化呈减少趋势。前期北半球海冰范围距平百分率与登陆广东的STY、STS和TD相关性高,可作为预测依据;其相关系数通过显著性水平0.05检验且排位前3位的分别是当年6、2月的北半球海冰范围距平与登陆广东的STY,上一年5月、当年2月与登陆广东的STS,当年5月与登陆广东的TD。
Using the 1979-2017 NSIDC sea ice data for the Northern Hemisphere and the 1979-2018 typhoon data from the Tropical Cyclone Data Center of CMA,this work statistically studies and analyzes the main characteristics of the typhoons making landfall in Guangdong and the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere,and discusses the relationship between the boreal sea ice coverage and the typhoons making landfall in Guangdong in the previous and current years. The result is shown as follows. Typhoons made landfall in Guangdong every year at an average of 3. 5 typhoons per year. Of the landing typhoons,the category of severe tropical storm topped,with an average of 1. 3,followed in turn by that of typhoon,tropical depression,tropical storm and severe typhoon. There were two super typhoons. The coverage of Northern Hemisphere sea ice varied significantly with time,with positive anomaly from January to May and negative anomaly from July to November. In June,the positive anomaly took up 54% and the negative anomaly 46%. The anomaly of sea ice coverage was positive before 1994 but turned negative in 2001 and stayed that way ever since. For December,negative anomaly appeared for the first time in 2016 to result in a qualitative change while positive anomaly was prevalent in the rest of the years studied. For monthly distribution,it was unimodal,being at peak in March but at the bottom in September. Interdecadal variation tended to be decreasing. The percentage of precedent sea ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere was well correlated with the severe typhoon,severe tropical storm and tropical depression that made landfall in Guangdong,making it a basis of reference in forecasting. For the correlative coefficients that passed the test of 0. 05 significance level and ranked the top three,the correlation between the anomaly of boreal sea ice coverage and the severe typhoons making landfall in Guangdong in the current June and February was the most dominant,followed in turn by the one between the precedent May and the current February and the severe tropical storms making landfall in Guangdong and the one in the current May and the tropical depressions making landfall in Guangdong.
作者
徐海秋
谢维斯
张羽
梁敏妍
XU Hai-qiu;XIE Wei-si;ZHANG Yu;LIANG Min-yan(Service Center of Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology for Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510080;Center of Public Meteorological Service for Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510080;Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510080;Meteorological Bureau of Jiangmen City,Jiangmen 529030)
出处
《广东气象》
2020年第1期36-39,共4页
Guangdong Meteorology
基金
广东省科技创新战略专项资金项目(2018B020207012)
广东省促进经济高质量发展专项资金海洋经济发展项目(GDOE[2019]A11)。
关键词
气候学
北半球海冰
登陆台风
广东
climatology
sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere
landfalling typhoon
Guangdong
