摘要
为探究中国耕地畜禽粪尿负荷污染风险,基于种养平衡视角,定义“畜禽粪尿污染风险指数”,运用系统动力学方法进行预警,并通过情景分析,模拟不同治理模式的污染治理效果及对作物养分供给情况的影响。仿真结果显示:惯性趋势下2018—2025年,中国耕地畜粪尿负荷将始终对环境构成明显污染;减量化、资源化、达标排放是治理污染的3类有效模式,但“减量化模式”将大幅降低畜禽产品自给率及总产值;单凭提升“资源化模式”强度,难以彻底消除污染风险;“达标排放模式”难以在满足作物氮肥需求的情况下,消除污染风险。研究表明,以“资源化模式”为主,“达标排放模式”作为补充的组合模式是消除当前污染风险的有效办法。
To explore the pollution risk in farmlands caused by livestock and poultry feces in China based on the balance of planting and breeding,the risk index of pollution of livestock and poultry feces was defined,and the system dynamics method was employed to ascertain early warning.Through scenario analysis,the effects of different governance modes on pollution control and crop nutrient supply were simu⁃lated.Based on the simulation results,under inertial trend,from 2018 to 2025,the livestock and poultry feces would constitute a mild level pollution risk to the environment in China.Reduction,resourcefulness,and standardized discharge were the three effective ways to control pollution caused by livestock and poultry feces.“Reduction model”would greatly reduce the self-sufficiency rate and total output value of livestock and poultry products.It was difficult to completely eliminate the pollution risk by improving the intensity of the“resource model”.It was also difficult to eliminate the risk of pollution under the condition of meeting the demand of nitrogen fertilizer for crops as per the“standardized discharge model”.Results show that taking"resource mode"as the primary mode and"standard emission mode"as the sup⁃plementary mode is an effective way to eliminate the current pollution risk.
作者
李鹏程
韩成吉
石自忠
王明利
LI Peng-cheng;HAN Cheng-ji;SHI Zi-zhong;WANG Ming-li(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《农业环境科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期628-637,共10页
Journal of Agro-Environment Science
基金
“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFD0501105）
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2020-01)~~
关键词
种养平衡
畜禽粪尿污染
系统动力学
预警
治理模式效果
balance between planting and breeding
pollution by livestock and poultry feces
system dynamics
early warning
policy effect
