摘要
随着对气候变化认识的加深,如何降低城市脆弱性和提高气候适应能力成为国内外城市与环境研究的新热点,而如何评估和界定城市对气候的适应性,是城市开展适应规划和建设的基础。本文以京津冀地区北京市、天津市、河北省为代表,选取资源环境水平、经济支撑能力、社会发展水平、响应治理能力四个大类,十二个评价指标,运用AHP层次分析法和逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)构建气候适应能力评价体系,根据模型对2008-2018年北京市、天津市、河北省三地的适应能力分级,将城市的适应能力划分为Ⅰ级低水平、Ⅱ级中等水平和Ⅲ级高水平,分析各个因素对于气候适应性的贡献程度。结果表明,京津冀地区城市气候适应能力总体上不断增强,城市化进程稳定,但存在一定差异性和不均衡性,表现为北京市强于天津市,天津市强于河北省。北京市各要素起步水平高且稳定增长;天津市较河北省经济支撑和社会发展水平较高,资源环境水平和响应治理能力较河北省还相对较弱。
With the deepening of understanding of climate change, how to reduce the vulnerability of cities and improve their ability to adapt to climate has become a new hotspot in urban and environmental research at home and abroad. Defining and evaluating urban adaptability to climate are the basis for urban adaptation planning and construction. This article took Beijing-TianjinHebei as the representatives. By selecting the four major categories of resource and environment level, economic support capacity, social development level, and response governance capacity and twelve evaluation indicators, using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and Approximate Ideal Solution Ranking Method, the adaptability of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 208-2018 was clarified, including Ⅰ low-level, Ⅱ intermediate-level, and Ⅲ advanced-level. The contribution of each factor to climate adaptation was also analyzed. The results showed that the climate adaptability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region had been continuously enhanced in general, and the urbanization process was stable. But there were certain differences and imbalances, that was,Beijing was stronger than Tianjin and Tianjin was stronger than Hebei Province. Beijing had a higher starting level of various factors and a stable growth. Compared with Hebei, Tianjin had a higher level of economic support and social development, a lower level of resources and environment, and a weaker ability to respond to climate change.
作者
朱潜挺
刘镇萌
唐景烨
吴静
Zhu Qianting;Liu Zhenmeng;Tang Jingye;Wu Jing(College of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249;College of Science,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249;Institutes of Science and Development,CAS,Beijing 100190;School of Public Policy and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)
出处
《创新科技》
2020年第1期53-61,共9页
Innovation science and technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“微观创新驱动下京津冀城市群低碳经济转型建模及政策评估—基于agent模拟”(41971266)
国家自然科学基金项目“《巴黎协定》背景下我国城市参与国家气候治理的分类机制及政策研究”(41871219)
国家重点研发计划(973)项目“地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合”(2016YFA0602702)。
