摘要
以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化对自然环境和农业生产有重要影响,准确预估未来不同气候情景下的气候变化能为应对其带来的负面影响提供必要的数据基础和科学依据。该文通过统计降尺度方法对CMIP5中33个全球气候模式(GCM)的未来气候情景数据进行时空降尺度处理,得到逐日站点数据,并基于多模式集合预估华北平原在两个典型气候情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下未来气候变化的时空特征。结果表明:在时间变化上,2040年后温度在情景RCP8.5下的增幅远高于情景RCP4.5,至21世纪末增幅达到最高;太阳总辐射量变化趋势呈现明显的“减少-增加-稳定”特征;未来降雨量呈微弱上升趋势。在空间变化上,东部和西南部地区未来最高温度增幅最高,最低温度增幅呈现自西南向东北递增的空间格局;太阳辐射增幅表现为明显的“北低南高”,而降雨增幅自西北向东南递减。2040s(2031-2060)阶段各主要气候因子(温度、太阳辐射和降雨)增幅较小,而2080s(2071-2100)阶段增幅加大;不同气候情景下各气候因子增幅差异较大,温度和降雨在情景RCP8.5下的增幅明显高于RCP4.5,而太阳辐射在情景RCP4.5下的增幅高于RCP8.5。
Global climate change characterized by climate warming has an important impact on the natural environment and the agricultural production.Accurately predicting climate change in different climate scenarios in the future can provide the necessary data foundation and scientific basis for responding to the negative impacts.In this study,we conducted spatiotemporal downscaling for the future climate scenarios data based on 33 global climate models(GCMs)from CMIP5 using the statistical downscaling method.As the simulation of multi-GCMs,the spatiotemporal characteristics for future climate change were projected under two typical climate scenarios(i.e.RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)in the North China Plain.The results indicated that the increases of temperatures(including maximum temperature(Tmax)and minimum temperature(Tmin))under RCP8.5 were much higher than that of RCP4.5 after the year of 2040,and they would reach the highest at the end of the 21st century.The change in radiation showed obvious characteristics of"decreasing-increasing-stable",and the change in precipitation in the future showed a slight increasing trend.In the spatial characteristics,the increase of Tmax in the future was higher in the eastern and southwestern regions,and the amount of Tmin increase showed a spatial pattern as increasing from southwest to northeast.The change in radiation was characterized by"lower in north but higher in south",and the increasing amount of precipitation declined from northwest to the southeast.The magnitude of the major climatic factors(temperature,radiation and precipitation)increased slightly during the 2040s(2031-2060)period,but they increased largely during the 2080s(2071-2100)period.The changes of climatic factors were considerably different under different climate scenarios.The increases of temperature and precipitation under RCP8.5 were significantly higher than that of RCP4.5,while the increase of radiation under RCP4.5 was higher than that of RCP8.5.These results are of great significance to guide the management of agricultural production in the future.
作者
肖登攀
赵彦茜
柏会子
唐建昭
冯璞玉
刘德立
XIAO Deng-pan;ZHAO Yan-xi;BAI Hui-zi;TANG Jian-zhao;FENG Pu-yu;LIU De-li(Institute of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Academy of Sciences,Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application,Shijiazhuang 050011,China;NSW Department of Primary Industries,Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute,Wagga Wagga 2650,Australia)
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期75-82,共8页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
河北省优秀专家出国培训项目
河北省科学院高层次人才培养与资助项目(2018G03)
国家自然科学基金项目(41401104)。
