摘要
未来气候变化对农牧交错带不同灌溉水平马铃薯产量和水分利用的影响鲜有研究。该研究基于农牧交错带张北和武川站不同灌溉条件下大田试验数据评估了APSIM-Potato模型的适应性;基于33个全球气候模式(global climate model,GCM)通过统计降尺度方法获得的未来2个气候情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)逐日气候数据驱动APSIM-Potato模型,模拟未来气候变化对不同灌溉水平(灌1水、灌2水、灌3水和灌4水)马铃薯产量和水分利用的影响。结果表明:APSIM-Potato模型能够较好地模拟2个站点马铃薯产量和土壤水分动态。2个站点实测产量和模拟产量的相对误差均小于22.6%,实测土壤水分和模拟土壤水分相对均方根误差均小于18.1%。基于33个GCM模拟结果,2030 s、2060 s和2090 s马铃薯生育期温度、CO2浓度、总降水量和总辐射量相比于基准期(1981-2010)均呈增加趋势。相比于基准期灌1水、灌2水、灌3水和灌4水马铃薯产量,张北站和武川站在RCP4.5情景下均有提升,张北站为4.1%~36.2%,武川站为2.5%~13.6%。RCP8.5情景下,2个站点分别提升3.1%~36.8%和3.1%~38.5%。且2个气候情景下均是灌1水情景下马铃薯产量提升最高。2个气候情景下,马铃薯水分利用效率在2030 s-2090 s均呈增加趋势。研究结果表明未来气候变化对农牧交错带地区马铃薯产量和水分利用效率具有积极影响,未来气候情景下该地区更适宜灌溉马铃薯的生产。
Understanding the impacts of climate change on potato production is critical for future food security in agro-pastoral ecotone(APE)of North China.In this study,the APSIM-Potato model was calibrated and validated at Zhangbei(ZB)and Wuchuan(WC)stations by using filed experimental data.At Zhangbei a long-term(2011–2017)experiment was conducted under rainfed conditions,with Dabaihua’potato cultivar planted in 1000 m2 plots.Potato production at Wuchuan station was under irrigated conditions,4 irrigation levels of 0,90,180 and 360 mm were designed in the experiment and each treatment replicated 3 times.Experimental data in 2011 and 2012 from ZB site and the values for WC site in 2015 were used to calibrate the model.The validation years were 2014 and 2017 for ZB site and 2016 for WC site.The trial-and-error method was used to calibrate the model.The calibrated model was then used to assess the impacts of future climate change on irrigated potato yield and evapotranspiration at the 2 typical sites under different irrigation levels with amount of 60,120,180 and 240 mm.The future daily climate data at the 2 sites were statistically downscaled from 33 global climate models(GCMs)under 2 representative concentration pathways(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).Results showed that APSIM-Potato model accurately simulated potato yield and soil water storage under both of rainfed and irrigated conditions with the relative error of yield not higher than 22.6%.The ensemble of downscaled GCM projections showed significant increase in growing season temperature in the period 2021-2040(2030s),2051-2070(2060s)and 2081-2100(2090s)compared with the baseline period 1981-2010.Total solar radiation during the growing season of potato had decreased trend in the 2030s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios at the 2 sites,while showed a slight increase in 2060s and 2090s compared with the baseline period 1981-2010.Total precipitation in the growing season of potato showed increase trend in all 3 future periods under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the 2 sites.Compared with irrigated yield under baseline period(1981-2010),the yield under RCP4.5 in 2030s-2090s could be increased by 4.1%-36.2%and 2.5%-13.6%at Zhangbei and Wuchuan,respectively.For RCP8.5 the values were 3.1%-36.8%and 3.1%-38.5%at Zhangbei and Wuchuan,respectively.The evapotranspiration of potato showed an increase trend under most periods under RCPs,however decreased by 0.12%at Zhangbei under RCP4.5 and by 0.8%at Wuchuan under RCP8.5 in 2090s.Water use efficiency(WUE)of potato showed an increased trend in 2030s—2090s under both RCPs.Our results suggested that future climate change will have more positive effects on irrigated potato production in the APE.
作者
唐建昭
肖登攀
柏会子
Tang Jianzhao;Xiao Dengpan;Bai Huizi(Engineering Technology Research Center,Geographic Information Development and Application of Hebei,Institute of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Academy of Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050011,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期103-112,共10页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
河北省科学院科技计划项目(2018G18,2019G03)
河北省优秀专家出国培训项目。
