摘要
利用山东省德州市1951年~2018年气象数据资料,探究德州市降水变化特征及干旱情况。结果表明,德州市年降水量及夏季降水量呈减小趋势,夏季降水量在2006年超过了下降趋势的突变点。SPEI、SPI指标都能反映德州市的干旱情况,但SPEI优于SPI;多时间尺度的SPEI值反映了德州短时间尺度旱涝无常,但长期干旱或者极端干旱事件发生频率较低,随着全球气候变化的进一步发生,未来德州市降水可能进一步减少,干旱发生的频率和强度可能进一步增大。
Using the meteorological data of Dezhou City, Shandong Province from 1951 to 2018, the precipitation characteristics and drought conditions in Dezhou City were explored. The results show that the annual precipitation and summer precipitation in Dezhou show a decreasing trend, and the summer precipitation exceeded the abrupt point of the downward trend in 2006. Both SPEI and SPI indicators can reflect the drought situation in Dezhou, but SPEI is better than SPI;SPEI values on multiple time scales reflect the short-term drought and flood in Texas, but the frequency of long-term drought or extreme drought events is lower. With the further occurrence of climate change, precipitation in Dezhou may decrease further,and the frequency and intensity of drought may increase further.
作者
吴金磊
李志强
牛勇
Wu Jinlei;Li Zhiqiang;Niu Yong(l.Water Resources Bureau,Dezhou 253048,Shandong;College of Forestry,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an 271018,Shandong)
出处
《陕西水利》
2020年第1期59-61,67,共4页
Shaanxi Water Resources
