摘要
目的分析福州市慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)急性发作与同期气象因素的相关性,建立福州地区COPD急性发作气象预警模型。方法收集福建医科大学附属协和医院住院的COPD急性发作病例,选取同期月平均气温、月平均气温波动指数、月平均最低气温、月平均最低气温波动指数、月平均气压、月平均降雨量、月平均相对湿度这7个气象指标为评估因子,进行多元逐步回归分析,建立基于不同季节的精确预警模型。结果春季COPD发病人数与月平均最低气温、月平均气温波动指数呈正相关关系,与月平均相对湿度、月平均气温呈负相关关系(调整R^2=0.54,F=18.29,P<0.05);夏季发病人数与月平均相对湿度、月平均气温、月平均最低气温波动指数呈负相关关系(调整R^2=0.30,F=9.47,P<0.05);秋季发病人数与月平均气压呈正相关关系,与月平均相对湿度呈负相关关系(调整R^2=0.45,F=24.95,P<0.05);冬季发病人数与月平均相对湿度、月平均气压呈负相关关系(调整R^2=0.20,F=8.57,P<0.05)。结论气象因素与COPD急性发作密切相关,可通过多元线性回归方程进行模拟预测。
Objective To analyze the correlation between the occurrence of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)and the corresponding-period meteorological factors in Fuzhou from 1991to 2010,so as to establish a meteorological forewarning model for acute exacerbation of COPD in the area of Fuzhou.Methods The numbers of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD treated in the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University from 1991to 2010were collected by month.The seven meteorological indicators during the same periods including monthly mean temperature,monthly mean temperature fluctuation index,monthly mean minimum temperature,monthly mean minimum temperature fluctuation index,monthly mean atmospheric pressure,monthly mean rainfall and monthly mean relative humidity were collected as evaluation factors.Then multiple stepwise regression analysis was carried out in order to establish an accurate forewarning model based on different seasons.Results The number of patients with acute exacerbation of COPD in spring was positively correlated with monthly mean minimum temperature and monthly mean temperature fluctuation index,but negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity and monthly mean temperature(adjusted R-square=0.54,F=18.29,P<0.05).In summer it was negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity,monthly mean temperature and monthly mean minimum temperature fluctuation index(adjusted R-square=0.30,F=9.47,P<0.05).In autumn it was positively correlated with monthly mean atmospheric pressure,but negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity(adjusted R-square=0.45,F=24.95,P<0.05).In winter it was negatively correlated with monthly mean relative humidity,monthly mean atmospheric pressure(adjusted R-square=0.20,F=8.57,P<0.05).Conclusion Meteorological factors are closely related to the occurrence of acute exacerbation of COPD,and can be predicted by multiple linear regression equations.
作者
黄慧琴
邹燕
李勇
郭舜民
余晶晶
HUANG Huiqin;ZOU Yan;LI Yong;GUO Shunmin;YV Jingjing(Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Medical Analysis,Fujian Academy of Medical Sciences,Fuzhou,Fujian 350001,China)
出处
《福建医药杂志》
CAS
2020年第1期23-26,共4页
Fujian Medical Journal
基金
福建省科技计划公益类科研院所专项(2016R1029-4)。
关键词
慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)
气象因素
预警模型
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)
meteorological factors
forewarning model
