摘要
随着2018年国内经济下行,美国主动对华发起贸易摩擦,创业板指数面临巨大挑战。各大证券机构、经济研究院在积极研究贸易摩擦对创业板融资波动的影响。文章以2018年1月至2019年10月份的月度数据为基础,建立VAR模型,通过运用脉冲响应分析以及格兰杰因果检验来研究出口贸易和创业板指数两者关系。结果表明在贸易摩擦的基础上出口贸易对创业板指数无抑制作用,即贸易出口额的降低,会使创业板指数的回升,有利于创业板的融资。
With the decline of the domestic economy in 2018 and the United States proactively initiating trade frictions with China,the ChiNext index is facing great challenges.Major securities institutions and economic research institutes are actively studying the impact of trade frictions on the volatility of GEM financing.Based on monthly data from January 2018 to October 2019,this article establishes a VAR model,and uses impulse response analysis and Granger causality tests to study the relationship between export trade and the GEM index.The results show that on the basis of trade friction,export trade has no inhibitory effect on the GEM index,that is,a decrease in the value of trade exports will cause the GEM index to rebound and be beneficial to GEM financing.
作者
陆翔
LU Xiang(School of Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233000,China)
出处
《价值工程》
2020年第9期284-286,共3页
Value Engineering
