摘要
运用城乡收入差距和全要素生产增长率对2006—2016年间全国31个省份房地产利用秩序进行评估;通过修正房地产财政依赖度评价模型对房地产财政依赖度进行分析,进而划分房地产风险评级矩阵,提出分类分级实施调控的策略组合建议.研究发现,我国大部分省份房地产利用平均纵向秩序处于中低秩序,横向秩序呈现整体向好态势;房地产高依赖度省份基本为土地市场整体运行良好的发达省份,部分低依赖度省份房地产市场运行水平较差;处于房地产预警和风险期的省份多位于东、中部,多与当地的高房地产财政依赖度密切相关,处于相对安全和理想期的省份则基本为经济发展水平靠后、资源人口流失的省份.
The urban and rural income gap and the total factor production growth rate are used to assess the real estate utilization order of 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2016.The real estate financial dependence is analyzed by revising the evaluation model of the real estate financial dependence,and then the real estate risk rating matrix is divided,and a combination of strategies for classified regulation and control are proposed.The study found that the average vertical order of real estate utilization in most provinces in China is in the middle and low order,and the horizontal order shows an overall good trend.The provinces with high financial dependence on real estate are basically developed provinces with good overall operation of the land market,and some provinces with low financial dependence have low real estate market operating levels.Most of the provinces in the real estate early warning and risk period are located in the east and central regions,and are closely related to the local high real estate financial dependence.The provinces with relative security and ideal period are basically the provinces with lower economic development level and resources population loss.
作者
陈凯
殷天舸
焦阳
CHEN Kai;YIN Tiange;JIAO Yang(School of Business Administration,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,Liaoning Province,China;Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao in China,Qinhuangdao 066004,Hebei Province,China)
出处
《天津科技》
2020年第3期52-56,59,共6页
Tianjin Science & Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“建立能源和水资源消耗、建设用地总量和强度双控市场化机制研究”(15ZDC034)
河北省社会科学基金重大项目“我省创新驱动高质量发展治理体系研究”(HB19ZD04)。
关键词
房地产
利用秩序
风险评估
全要素生产率
real estate
utilization order
risk assessment
total factor productivity
