摘要
新型冠状肺炎综合风险评估是开展疫情风险管理和防控的关键途径,而评估方法是其中的关键。以公共安全的“三角形”模型为指导,考虑突发事件即病毒本身的危险性、承灾载体即易感人群的脆弱性、应急管理的有效性3个维度因素,建立了综合多个维度的风险评估方法。评估结果显示,当前数据显示综合风险最高的5个省(市)级地区分别为湖北、上海、香港、北京和广东;在湖北省内,综合风险最高的4个地级市分别为武汉、鄂州、孝感和黄冈。
The comprehensive risk assessment of COVID-19 is a key approach to the comprehensive epidemic risk management while the assessment method is the key to the epidemic risk assessment.This paper uses the public security“triangular model”and considers the three factors,i.e.,the incident(the hazard of the virus itself),the vulnerability of hazard-affected carriers(the vulnerability of vulnerable groups),and the effectiveness of emergency management to establish a multidimensional risk assessment method,which can help to provide effective method for the next epidemic response and plans of resource allocation.According to the assessment results,the top five provinces with highest comprehensive risk are respectively Hubei,Shanghai,Hong Kong,Beijing and Guangdong.Within Hubei province,the top four cities are Wuhan,E’zhou,Xiaogan and Huanggang.
作者
袁宏永
陈涛
黄丽达
苏国锋
黄全义
戴佳昆
余水平
YUAN Hongyong;CHEN Tao;HUANG Lida;SU Guofeng;HUANG Quanyi;DAI Jiakun;YU Shuiping(Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Beijing Global Safety Technology Co.,Ltd,Beijing 100094,China)
出处
《科技导报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期21-28,共8页
Science & Technology Review
基金
十三五国家重点研发计划国家公共安全应急平台项目(2018YFC0807000)。
关键词
新冠肺炎
公共安全
应急能力
COVID-19
public security
emergency ability
