摘要
根据"十一五"和"十二五"时期的面板数据,运用LMDI-Tapio两阶段方法分析长江经济带各省市经济增长与用水量脱钩状态变化,通过分解脱钩指数探究脱钩状态变化的驱动因素。对比两个时期发现:长江经济带经济增长与用水量在"十一五"期间处于弱脱钩状态,在"十二五"期间处于强脱钩状态;长江三角洲及长江中游经济区由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩状态,长江上游经济区一直处于弱脱钩状态;经济增长影响用水量的四大效应中,强度因子促进脱钩并作用增强,收入因子抑制脱钩且作用减弱,结构因子促进脱钩作用较为稳定,人口因子作用随时空变化而变化。据此提出推动产业结构调整和坚持政策节水、引导人口资源要素跨区域合理流动、重点关注用水强度与经济收入因子的脱钩贡献率等政策建议。
Using the panel data of the“Eleventh Five-Year Plan”and“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”periods,the LMDI-Tapio two-stage method is used to analyze changes in the decoupling state between economic growth and water consumption in various provinces and cities in the Yangtze River economic belt,and the driving factors of the decoupling stateare studied by decomposing the decoupling indexes.A comparison between the two periods indicates:(1)The economic growth of the Yangtze River economic belt is in a weak decoupling state during the“Eleventh Five-Year Plan”period,and a strong decoupling state during the“Twelfth Five-Year Plan”period.(2)The Yangtze River delta and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are changed from the weak decoupling to strong decoupling state,and the economic zone in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River has been in a weak decoupling state.(3)The intensity factor promotes decoupling and enhances the effect,and the income factor inhibits decoupling and the effect is weakened.The structural factor promotes the decoupling effect to be relatively stable,and the population factor changes with time and space.Accordingly,some policy proposals are proposed:to promote industrial restructuring and adhere to policy water conservation,to guide the rational flow of population resources and resources across regions,and to focus on the decoupling contribution rate of water intensity and economic income factor.
作者
章恒全
陈纯
张陈俊
ZHANG Hengquan;CHEN Chun;ZHANG Chenjun(Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Business Administration,Hohai University,Changzhou 213022,China)
出处
《水利经济》
2020年第2期30-35,82,共7页
Journal of Economics of Water Resources
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(17YJC790194)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(4170110)。
关键词
长江经济带
经济增长
用水量
LMDI
脱钩驱动因素
Yangtze River economic belt
economic growth
water consumption
LMDI
decoupling driver
