摘要
基于2015-2017年3 a的ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度预报产品,采用格点映射站点法、天气学检验方法和逐步回归拟合订正方法,对该模式在不同季节、不同天气时的抚州市温度预报能力进行检验。结果表明:ECMWF细网格模式2 m温度预报的02:00和14:00可代表日最低、最高温度。冬半年的逐季最高气温预报准确率高出夏半年9.7%~27.4%。夏半年的逐季最低气温预报准确率高出冬半年7.0%~24.7%。A、B、C格点02:00预报的气温很好地代表临川区、资溪县、广昌县全年的日最低气温预报。拟合的ECMWF模式2 m最高温度预报订正方程适用于日最高温度预报,对24 h内的最高温度和最低温度预报提供参考依据。
Based on the ECMWF fine grid model 2 m temperature forecast product for three years from 2015 to 2017, Lattice map site method, weather test method and revised fitting model were used to test the temperature prediction ability of the model in Fuzhou in different seasons and weather. The results show that ECMWF fine grid model 2 m temperature predictions at 02:00 and 14:00 can represent daily minimum and maximum temperatures. The accuracy rate of seasonal maximum temperature forecast in winter half year is 9.7%~27.4% higher than that in summer half year. The accuracy rate of seasonal minimum temperature forecast in the summer half year is 7.0%~24.7% higher than that in the winter half year. A, B, C grid points at 02 o’clock represent a good daily temperature forecast for Linchuan District, Zixi County and Guangchang County. The fitted ECMWF model 2 m maximum temperature forecast correction equation is suitable for daily maximum temperature forecast and provides a reference basis for the maximum and minimum temperature forecast within 24 hours.
作者
董玲
周湘萍
邓雅敏
DONG Ling;ZHOU Xiangping;DENG Yamin(Fuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province,344000,Fuzhou,Jiangxi,PRC)
出处
《江西科学》
2020年第2期213-219,共7页
Jiangxi Science
基金
江西省抚州市气象局2017年自筹资金科研项目“模式温度预报与实况误差统计和订正方法研究”。
